Another War, Another Fuel Shortage

Does anyone still recall being on the cusp of the world wide pandemic in late January 2020? Was there a creeping silence as to what could possibly come ahead, as youngsters prepared for another school year across Australia, as east Asia welcomed another Lunar New Year and as supermarket shelves in Europe were loaded with taken for granted signs of plenty? Six years later, we are beginning to possibly experience a Deja Vu of a familiar unfolding scenario in our daily lives. Medicines essential on a regular basis may become scarce or increasingly unavailable due to logistical problems. Availability of supplies of diesel, refined petroleum and liquified gas are reduced and can stop indefinitely, subject to political play. Retail prices of electricity and gas spike again as their generation and flow are dependent on ships delivering petroleum along the world's critically trade strategic passageways. Increasing interest rates spiral inflation for businesses and reduce affordability at the retail level. The linkages in a globalised world continue to be saddled with issues as to how to effectively move trucks, ships and aircraft. Impact on prices charged for construction and building materials is one example of a downside that can ripple through society. Impact on viability and pricing for delivery of goods, food and parcels can slow the dynamics of online and off site purchases. At this stage, in late March 2026, do you feel a deafening or selective silence from authorities, governments and those running our society, about the current and potential risks and outcomes, should there be a continuation of shortages in supplies, increased volume of arnaments used in destruction and a significant toll of civillians injured or dying as collateral damage? The impact of much less petroleum being delivered to societies and economies around the world is still unravelling around four weeks after the firsr missiles were fired. Less developed parts of any country first take the hit when a vital resource gets progressively hard to obtain. City folks get disrupted later and when each new day offers no resolution to the cause of the problem. Australia Post has increased charges for business customers regarding delivery fees. The retail prices of petrol continue to spike all across the Asia-Pacific, with the Phillippines already declaring a national energy emergency. There is a reduction in availability of ingredients necessary to make materials for several industries. Airlines have quickly raised airfares and reduced scheduled flights. Fresh produce cannot be shipped on a timely basis to key overseas markets. Waste collection services in suburbs are affected. Fertiliser costs rise to the detriment of farmers. The much reduced inability to obtain liquified natural gas from West Asia adds a double whammy. Each week brings stuttered considerations and implementation by governments of counter measures like fuel rationing, car pooling, limited use of vehicles, release of poorer quality petrol, emergency provisioning and requests to the public to go out less. Food and grocery availability depend on mechanised vehicles being able to operate mostly utilising petrol. The visible lack of electrification across Australia for public, commercial and private transport purposes has now come home to roost. Generation of electricity in Australia however is not just reliant on solar panel generation but uses fossil fuel sources as well. More and more countries have over depended on private vehicle usage, for varying reasons like their geographical size, cities with poor public transport networks and the pyschological freedom valued when using the motor car. The Achilles heel in vehicle usage is the combination of high pricing for fuel and its reduced availability. The reactions observed of government responses seem to indicate a lack of viable and proactive business continuity planning. Governments of nations seem to operate on the optimism model and only act after significant negative events to first occur. It can be incredulous that governments have been using the just in time and minimum stock principles in inventory management of vital national supplies. A viable nation not only requires defensive abilities in war, but equally important are national resource security, key asset management and the ability to bounce back in the shortest time possible. Incredibly there have been Prime Ministers and/or Energy Ministers telling voters in the recent past, that there are no worries about having a few weeks of national fuel reserves on shore, as they can always depend on allies overseas to make up for shortages in case of shortages encountered. In a world wide emergency, it is indeed every man to himself. Energy sources are not just vital to run an economy in peace time, but become so significant in times of war. A society's vulnerability spikes when it only reacts after something has already occured. The importance of refined petroleum is a good example - a country as large as Australia has for a long time chosen to only have two refineries, even if it produces this vital resource in raw form. A small island nation like Singapore strategised to be a large fuel refiner long ago, even if it has no natural resources. How long the war crisis permeates both micro and macro layers of any economy depends on the decisions made by the human players in the outbreak of conflict. We were tied to the biological and mutatative behaviour of organisms during the Covid pandemic - and the world had witnessed the impact on finance, trade, mobility, health in all forms, governance, commercial power play and social attitudes from 2020 to at least 2023. The kick off for inflation to move at a faster rate has begun a few weeks ago. When various parts of the supply chain experience a kink or a delay, rogue players in the free markets can create artificial insuffiencies or quote actual shortages and raise prices more than necessary in the scheme of things. In economies which do not believe in price controls, the ultimate consumer has no other choice but to pay ultimate costs. The subsequent consequence of rising inflation for higher inter bank rates set by a central bank ( and thereby for mortgage and other lending costs) brings further dire pressure on loan borrowers who already do not earn enough to pay more for interest expenditure. In socialist practice, do governments offer tax credits, increased welfare payments, compensation set offs or specific subsidies to mitigate sudden rising costs of living and expenses of small business? With tighter budgets, the public can be reluctant to spend less on discretionary items and thereby contract the multiplier effect on consumption. A further strike on consumer and business confidence can drive recessionary pressures, reduced wages and GDP growth. Like an accelerating car's speed, even if the causative war were to end tonight, the linked impacts would take some time to stop. Who are nevertheless still benefitting behind the cloud of an pessimistic outlook? Does a conflict embed further the immense power already held by the few on Earth? The churning of pricing and value of investment options is utilised for quick profits with deft timing and changing allocations. The price of gold has see sawed in response to political moves, threats to escalate, promises to reverse and differing actions already witnessed in the few weeks since 28 February. Bond yields in the USA have steadily risen. Share prices have plunged collectively on red letter days and quietly recovered on days that followed. Understandably wholesale oil prices show spectacular increases on graphs, although they do drop as well. How the big players buy and sell at the right time is a useful skill of intelligent analysis and daring already seen through previous heightened episodes of stock and asset play. The media, in whatever form, needs events to arouse readership, attention and discussion. In an age of instantenous accessibility and enhanced pack mentality in expression, well funded financiers, politically charged arousers and savvy influencers can have an intense opportunity in communicating their convictions or agenda. The tragic underside of the internet is its misuse to nisinform or disinform. What has not been emphasised is the possibility of general gullibility of the target audience (including myself) - especially to new technology that can make it harder to distinguish the truth and facts from opinions, speculation and manipulated images. Wartime is the garden bed for bringing up fears, confusion and strong opinions in reaction to a deluge of varying qualities and standards of supposed information. Are certain quarters using war, and its impact, to make huge money making opportunities personally ? Buy when share or commodity prices fall drastically, sell when it spikes up again? If a political decision or action can significantly move values and prices, isn't it a better mechanism to utilise than wait for movements of so called free markets. Like during the Covid 19 pandemic, this month can be another opportunity for contemporary societies to reassess their ongoing risks, assumptions and delusions of the prosperity enjoyed so far. How likely is the strength of still possible optimism, that the problems so far experienced will fade and life will go on as before? Is your nation sleep walking and blithely awaiting a next crisis, if it survives this current one? Patchwork and stop gap measures may make our society carry on, but it does not resolve the relevant root causes. A crisis is an opportunity to resolve matters and build more resilience for the long term, and not just surface treat the symptoms. What are Earth and human beings in for this time in 2026? The Word of the Year seems likely to be "Fuel Surcharge". #yongkevthoughts 26.3 26

This Suburb

 I am standing along a suburban street lined mostly with unassuming shops.

The only place seemingly abuzz durinv the daytime
is the local cafe, where freshly made barista made cups of Aussie coffee blends set the pace, mostly takeaway.

The sun does shine brightly, accompanied by blue skies, even in winter.   Does the optimistic outlook not reveal the reasons for the otherwise quiet aspects of the place apart from the cafe?

Most of the businesses are basic but perhaps essential.   A hair salon, a small grocery, a vet, a house interior showroom, a dentist, a GP clinic, a newsagent, a physiotherapy, an optometrist, a Vietnamese bakery, a pharmacy. And of course there is the local pub, bought several years ago by well funded corporates from rhe Big Smoke.

Recently a vape and tobacco outlet opened, shattering the placid tones of a little village like community which was essentially defined by strolling dogs, kids on electric bikes and retirees.  I must say a small liquor store already exists, together with a machined gambling venue that firms a critical part of the club network in New South Wales.

There are no fresh produce markets - but the nearest one is only a kilometre away, in another suburb.   All three major supermarkets of the nation are only a ten minute walk away, downhill.

No imposing high rise apartment blocks have nevertheless sprung up.   The hills of the escarpment delude one to believe this is a refuge from the main highway not really far away.   One can view the ocean horizon by just walking up not many steps from the local strip.

A Meditteranean restaurant of repute continues to do well, in its second generation of operation.   Someone has invested in a wine bar yet to open. There are nearby local primary schools.

Families are the core of any growing and vibrant society.    They do appear especially on weekends in this village environment.  Nearby are parks, playing fields and children's playgrounds.

This suburb is pronouncedly bereft of activity on most afternoons.  After dusk, it seems residents sleep early.   The skies above are a riot of striking colours especially on autumn sunsets.  After dusk, the stars are clear and bright, as the place lacks the choking artificial lights of populated cities.

The sunrise from.the Tasman Sea beckons at first light.

Opposed to this, increasing traffic criss crosses this suburb when the main thoroughfares nearby become congested.
No roads have been expanded for the exploding number of vehicles.

The economy here runs on personal consumption and lifestyle,  based on a microeconomy structured on income earned from elsewhere.   This suburb is essentially residential, having  no forward looking hubs of growth.  Though pleasant and with a relatively mild climate, it does not generate tourism.   Youngsters still leave the area for the luring bright lights of other places.

Do aspects of this suburb ring familiar tones in where you live?

#yongkevthoughts

The Stars From The Universe Are Watching

 April and May 2025 can be emerging as a a transitionary time, when the stars of the Universe are looking at the choices of many groups of Homo Sapiens in their rituals and society behaviours.   Will the course of human civillisation encounter significant changes, or more things will be the same, with just different players forefront on the world stage?

Elections can be just smokescreens to seemingly give the human being on the street a sense of participation.   The powers that truly are can be putting the individuals they control as their continuing agents.

Registered voters head to the booths to mark their ballots in Canada, Singapore and Australia.   

Canada has seen the exit of long time Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose government has overseen the age of Covid epidemics, changing attitudes towards relentless immigration,  more acknowledgement of past injustices towards her Indigenous peoples, continuing pressure from the government of her nearest neighbour and rising costs of living.

Singapore has a newly minted Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, urgently handling a sweeping change of the landscape in international  trade, finance and economic exchanges as the fall out from the return to power of a controversial person as the POTUS.  That latter person has recently been most effective in creating widespread uncertainty.

The Australian Labor Government seeking re-election on 3 May has at most been under performing under Anthony Albanese, who has been reluctant to differ in several respects from its Opposition,  continue to toe the line and requirements from the USA and been ineffective and mainly bushfire reactive to the rising costs of housing, food, utilities, lack of commercial competition and social issues.

Although restricted to the Conclave, laden with traditional secrecy and religious ritual,  the selection of the next Pope at the Vatican is essentially a political process.    The successful candidate, who emerges on the balcony after white smoke is seen bellowing,  presides over 1.4 billion Catholics, mainly in Africa, South and Central America, the Phillippines, Timor-Leste and Europe.

Nations outside the USA are scrambling to reorganise supply logistics, access to critical minerals and manufacturing ingredients, payment systems, trading arrangements, over reliance on the USA and other impacts on GDP and economic growth.

Military conflict, suffering by the masses as part of socio-political aggression, the enrichment of the arnaments business and an intense propaganda media channeling remain key features of continuing disputes in the part of the world that transverses Sudan, Yemen, Gaza, the West Bank,  Ukraine and bordering parts of Russia.

Will Europe wake up to being more self reliant, more proactive and united in her affairs and strategy?   It can be a time to diversify alliances, partners and arrangements.   So can the disparate nations of South-east Asia, historically caught between the tradewinds and politics of the so called East and West.   Problems can be opportunity,   challenges can be the time to build a new future.

The sanctions, boycotts and cutoffs faced by the Chinese economy in recent years have made China even more determined and passionate to significantly improve their growing advanced technology,  reduce strategic  risks and become more self sufficient.    This is a nation that does not have enough food security,  takes on the massive macro debts of an over spending USA and now beginning to reduce the utilisation of the USD, long seen as a safe vital currency.

So will change be grabbed by the horns of the proverbial bull?    Will voters choose more of the same?   Can political leaders realise that viable preparations for a very different social, political and economic future may be too late?   Will governments continue to bask in the comfort zone of a landscape that has disappeared and not come back?  Will societies continue to be led by individuals who think less of their own nation and follow the wants of another country?   Will cabinets wait for reactive mindsets, instead of being proactive?

#yongkevthoughts

The Churn 2025

 The way stock exchange prices fall or rise are all part of the way shares work.  Sentiment, speculation, fundamentals, demand, uncertainty, competition, chase for higher returns, timeliness, hedging, parking, liquidity and more.

Financial trading, asset values, share churning and investment stability are all vulnerable to quake like proportions of downstream and immediate impact of significant tariff impositions by a dominant player like the USA government. 

Topsy turvy  causes and events are currently shaking human made arrangements that have been in use for so many years.  At least for now, or for some time.

Whether it leads to better or worse times, opportunity or challenge, or a storm that passes by, is up to our mindset, response, reaction and migitative action we choose.

History can repeat or rhyme.  Trump is not original in his actions.   Tariffs and sanctions have been applied in spectacular fashion by the USA and other nations in the past, leading to war, awakening,  upheaval, regrowth, industrial change, the doldrums and philosophical reflection.

To me, it is what we, as individuals,  have already learnt or  do learn further intrinsically from such human made developments, that is more significant.

Human systems in society can be fragile, turbulent, structurally vulnerable or shaking in political winds.   Yet they can be embedded in longer lasting values, infrastructure, internationally agreed and implemented agreements and principles.   The growth of human civilisation demonstrated the tensions between opppsite ends of the spectrum, change management or mismanagement and the destruction of the old to make way for the new.

At times human beings have to take steps backwards in order to go forward.  What used to work can be chucked ruthlessly away by events of Nature, political ego, silo thinking religious or cultural imperatives and more.  What did not work can be taken up again in a tornado of other priorities.  What works can be adopted once more by a new dynasty.

The masses continue to be swept up in the aftermath of decisions, wise or otherwise, made by individuals and their cohorts in power   - whether financial, technological, political or more.  In a population of eight billion, most of the denizens of Earth are like the proverbial ants that some can look upon with disdain  or without care.

In the meantime, the eagle still soars.  The moon continues to exert its gravity on the tides.  Human beings in their masses still lose some of their reality in this contemporary world based more on instant gratification, excessive waste and false diversions.   Human nature is essentially self centred - but the finesse and  cultivation by some societies of community priority over self can help to reverse this selfish characteristic.

News media reacts.  They do not really help us respond or think effectively on a holistic basis.  Their business is to churn, excite, incite and divide.  The presence of movement, or creating differences, is their rationale to make money out of events.

And so is making money out of investment in tangible assets, non tangible instruments of trade and finance, putting a bet on short or long term pricing of tradeable options, cashing on the lack of supply,  sentimentally driving up demand and liquidating at the right time.

Investments, trading, media reporting and  economic growth all need activity.  Why do finance websites, business reporting and 

investment screens obsessively display continuous trends and changes?   Revenue is mostly earned on the acquisition and disposal of the variety of investments, hedged, physical, derivative or intangible.  

Both news and finance thrive on events that spark off sentiment waves.

Nature does not sit still  either.  Our planet does move,  babies do grow,  seasons change.  

In human society, assets run down past their useful life,  man made currencies without the backing of gold vary in value and perception of worth and societies can collapse, as opposed to the unrealistic presumption that growth happens eternally.

Bullies know when their territory is being reduced, when their competitiveness has declined and they cannot practically get back to their days of misplaced glory.  The human pysche is built for change, adaptation and improvement.   Being the top dog a half century ago does not ensure being still king of the hill in 50 years in the future.  Down trodden economies of even 20 years ago, with renewed effort, intelligence and reorganisation can blossom for the future.

They embed themselves with longer lasting vibrancy, strength and meaningful management, direction and effort.  They do not resort to short term aggressive measures -  they build up their capability, markets and trade.

#yongkevthoughts

Egg Prices Two Years Ago

 Fresh eggs are basic consumption items, mostly undervalued, used on a daily basis in nutritious recipes and harvested on a massive scale across the globe.

The spike in prices of many goods, services and produce, after the end of Covid related lockdowns, has also affected the price of eggs around the world.  I inquired with friends based in several cities as to how much they pay for them, in April 2023.

My conclusion is that fresh eggs are most reasonably priced in Toronto, Canada and Singapore.

The most expensive fresh eggs are found in Auckland, New Zealand and London UK.

Eggs are sold with myraid labels, descriptions and weight in grams.
They can be sold as organic (more natural fibrous feed for the chickens), free range in living space, or both.  Organic hens need not be free range - and free range chickens need not be organic.

In Sydney, eggs sold per dozen range from 600 grams to 700 and 800.  Those sourced from regional areas tend to be from valleys, unique named farms and relatively remote areas.  Eggs from rural Malaysia (kampungs) are perceived to have better quality in suburbs of Peninsular cities and the island of Singapore.

Egg prices can differ widely between the 3 main supermarket chains, independent groceries, fresh produce markets, health food outfits and family producers.  More people are not getting fussed about best use dates.  Eggs used for baking can be different from those used in omelettes, health concoctions and steamed custards.

Eggs can be sold in trays of 30, like in Penang and Kuala Lumpur.  Halfcut trays of six eggs are offered with premium eggs across Greater Sydney. 

The flavour and taste of eggs vary, more pronounced when you try the same dish in different continents, like Eggs Benedict, sunny side fried egg in a burger or Onsen styled egg in ramen soup.  Are bigger sized eggs better than smaller ones? I reckon it all boils down to personal preference.

Do we seriously want to know the exact source of the eggs we purchase?  I reckon so, knowing the origin of such eggs enhances the experience of savouring them.  These days, even milk sold at Coles Down Under are just stated as using " Australian milk".  There is no further information - and one does not know exactly where across this continental island was the milk squeezed out.

#yongkevthoughts

AI Ramifications

 

My thoughts about AI are that once AI gets embedded into massive use, we will soon not realise or distinguish, what is the truth or reality, from what is made up with dubious agendas and out to mislead.

Technology will offer new fangled or useful mechanisms.  How one uses them is the bottom line reality for society, economy, philosophy, art, personal relations, geopolitics and in the broad management of Mother Earth.

Unlike offerings from past Industrial Revolutions, AI heralds a more serious concern to the human race, as AI can sophisticatedly self learn at a fast pace to emulate otherwise inherent human abilities like observing, copying plus self developing - and gradually become more independent from or merged in singularity with previously separate human intervention.

Applied negatively, AI will increasingly become a useful ingredient for destruction, manipulation and greed.  At the same time,
AI can save significant costs, bring more efficient supply logistics, eliminate repetitive work in human labour and provide instant analysis of performance, business or health wise.

With a burgeoning population of currently 8 billion, Earth has so many unique humans to look for a purpose in employment, business or occupation role.
AI can remove much of human input in manufacturing, care services, health diagnosis, financial care, retail services, mass delivery, military, communication, transport and in the daily regime of any human being.

AI can spike the value of services and businesses where personal interaction is still offered, albeit at expensive prices and higher revenue margins.

AI can make its mark in the quality and quantity of services provided to customers residing in remote geographical areas, like across the United States, China, Russia, Africa, Australia, Canada, Brazil, Chile and Argentina.  Long distance education is an obvious candidate for such a useful purpose.

Aged care services so benefit from AI, ranging from diagnostic services, location of patients, stimulating activities for the elderly and in assessing meal standards.

On the other hand, will our already much eroded personal privacy parameters be scuttled even more by the application of AI technology?

AI only works when there is a viable level, capacity and capability of wi-fi delivery.  Not many places or much of the population have access to this higher level of wi-fi. 

Fun aside, like at this stage, with the making of amazing, humorous, agitative, educational, propagandic or
community video clips,  AI on balance poses further challenges to the viability, integrity and uniqueness of the human intellect, condition and pysche.

Will there be a time when AI creativity surpasses that of the human brain and heart?

As demonstrated in the past, pertinent regulation, policy and legislation introduced in various nations can be so many steps behind the impact of AI.  This kind of mindset and reactive response to AI can only be disadvantageous for human interests.   Earth is meeting head on with a powerful technology whose control still remains with supercharged and well funded powers.

#yongkevthoughts

And When Being Back in Penang

  

The land jutting out in the city centre comes to view with a hundred details.

 There is a mixture of architectural styles. What I like most of all are the Victorian styled terrace shophouses, with louvred windows, strong supporting columns, the covered five foot ways and the coloured tiles of the roofs.

Welcome back to George Town, and you can most likely see it first from the air as your air craft is landing.   

Sited on the north-eastern corner of an island smaller than Singapore, with a geographical feature of an island shaped like a tortoise and named after the areca nut palm.   The settlement has had humbled beginnings, with this cape partly cleared of the jungle by the cannon shooting of coins to help accelerate clearing of the jungle.  

The conurbation that developed is a testament to the days of monsoon winds powering sails, of adventurers from another side of the Earth and of trading and the search for spices driving schemes, financial power and politics across various cultures.

George Town, on Penang Island, thrived on the exchange of goods and produce that were sourced nearby or in exchange as an entrepôt facilitation between China, the South-east Asian isles, India, the Middle East and Europe.   The original engine of growth can be seen in the dry goods provisions, porcelain displays and crafts stocked in shops and markets full of character located in what UNESCO has deemed to be a world heritage quarter.

The streets laid out by Captain Francis Light and his able administrators are still there, luring backpackers, youthful tourists and well heeled groups cycling or walking on them or seated on pedalled rickshaws.  The walls of buildings tell a thousand stories, many of them faded and jaded, but there are also others well maintained with fresh paint or with street murals.

There can be several things to do during a short stay, but having a foodie trail seems to dominate.  Penangites are dominantly Hokkien, with food, cultural practices and traditions from the southern Chinese province of Fujian.  They, along with others from a China in dynastic turmoil, migrated since the 1800s for opportunity and risk to make a better life.

The street food from these Hokkiens include Lobak meat and veg rolls, oyster omelettes or Orh Chien, Char Koay Teow, Char Kueh Kak ( savoury radish cake) and prawn stock flavoured noodles ( Penang Hokkien Mee).  Add the Cantonese migrants who brought along their roast meat styles, Chow Hor Fun ( stir fried broad rice noodles oozing with wok heat), yum cha dumplings and claypot rice with Lap Cheong cured sausages.

People snack several times from food courts and street stalls a day and night here, but the servings are small, varied and so appetising anyone easily joins into this regime.  

Penang had fusion a long time ago.  The hybrid between East and West can be observed in the way of dress, eating habits, creative dishes and social attitudes.   The ability to obtain ingredients from various parts of the world is emphasised in what they have as day to day food.  You can have American styled burgers, Japanese ramen, South Indian banana leaf rice, English fish and chips, Italian pasta and pizza, Aussie beer, Tandoori chicken, German frankfurters, Chinese hotpot, Thai stir fries, Eurasian Sugee cakes, Straits Chinese delicacies, Vietnamese spring rolls, Malay Rendang and bacon on toast without any problems at all - and the only advice is to avoid the midday sun.

The island is essentially compact, with most of her population packed on to its eastern side.  To her west, quality durians have been cultivated on hilly slopes that look out to where the Andaman Sea meets the Straits of Malacca.

Penang's northern shores host a winding and mostly narrow road that stretches from Tanjung Tokong ( Temple Cape) to Teluk Bahang ( Bay of Heat).   Residences cling on to hill sides and intersperse with contemporary architecture hotels and resorts.

Food stalls, souvenir outlets and night clubs congregate at Batu Ferringhi ( Rock of Foreigners) that heralded the hype beach scene in South East Asia from the 1970s.

In the middle of this Pearl of the Orient stand out two landmarks that have withstood the test of time.  The Kek Lok Si ( Temple of Ultimate Happiness) exemplifies the best of Buddhist architecture with Thai, Burmese and Chinese influences - and has a giant statute of the Goddess of Mercy Guan Yin.  The beautifully lit up KLS can be best experienced during the 15 days and nights of the Chinese New Year festival.

Penang Hill began earnest existence as a British colonial hill station, replete with bungalows that were built from around a hundred and more years ago.   The views of Penang Island and the surrounding mainland of the Malayan Peninsular are inspiring anytime,  but more so at sunrise and sunset.

What are the downsides of contemporary Penang? 

The lack of public transport infrastructure is so obvious to residents or visitors alike.
The population has increased several fold but many of the roads remain as narrow and unchanged as when I grew up there.   Vehicle numbers have spiked beyond the ability of current roads to cater to them.

With two landmark Penang Bridges connecting the rest of the peninsular Malaysia to this small island,  long weekends and festive periods result in congestion, crowding and chagrin for the island's residents.  Traffic jams have caused a normally 30 minute car ride to Penang's Airport from the UNESCO Heritage Quarter of George Town into an uncertain delay and stress for many airline passengers.

High rise residential reality of the 2020s signals a change from single storey accommodation of the mid 20th century.
The cooks who are behind Penang's well known and unique street food are no longer the Chinese, Malays and Indians but these days can be from Myanmar, Cambodia, Indonesia and Vietnam.  French or Italian culinary are so protective of their strict traditions, but are Penangites equally so?

What business or industrial sector will make Penang's future?  The making of chips once made Penang famous as "Silicon Island" throughout the IT world.

Tourism revenues continue at its pace, with more investment in new hotels in the past few years.  Is medical tourism still growing, with costs cheaper than Singapore but more expensive than Thailand?

In the socio-political landscape of the Federation of Malaysia, Penang is one of the few hubs with a Chinese demographic (others can be the Klang Valley in Selangor, Ipoh and Taiping in Perak, Kuching and Sibu in Sarawak and the Johor Baru region next to Singapore).
How can present Penangites and their diaspora living overseas do effectively to better Penang's future in economic 
growth in a diverse society?

The big question remains, what can Penang do to differentiate herself from her competitors?

#yongkevthoughts

Questions about the Illawarra NSW

 The Illawarra region depends significantly on only the normal surface commute trains for public transport to and from Greater Sydney.

There are no underground Metro trains, no light rail gliders and no ferry services between Circular Quay in Sydney and Port Kembla.

No regular bus services operate between the Illawarra and southern Sydney border.

Many baby boomers from the Illawarra area and NSW south coast use the rail to get to Sydney Airport flights or Circular Quay Sydney Harbour for their cruise ships.  It is an almost two hour trip one way.

There is an over dependence on private cars on the long highway from Sutherland to Wollongong and vice versa.

There is under developed infrastructure in the Illawarra, whose voters have always elected Labor - and which Labor at State, Council and National levels may possibly have taken the region for granted.

I am told that AUKUS submarines paid for by Canberra to the USA, if realised, are going to be stationed at Port Kembla. 

The town's main manufacturer BlueScope faces in 2025 high Usa tariffs for steel production.

The Illawarra has joined some other parts of Greater Sydney in having its economy churned by property sales, barista cafe lifestyle and aging services, but it does not look and is not as dynamic as some key suburbs across Greater Sydney.

Many Sydney property owners have also sold out across Greater Sydney and resettled along the NSW South Coast, if not moving out of the Big Smoke to be on the Central and North Coast of the State.
Property prices along the Illawarra have also risen alongside the mushrooming of high rise blocks.  Youngsters may naturally gyrate towards Sydney side, but the persistent lack of supply of housing there has embedded itself to a horrible situation of spiking rental lease costs, increasing vehicular traffic and crowded suburbs.

The Tasman Sea may be near and scenic to Illawarra residents, but her beaches have lured the demographics of south west Greater Sydney, especially when there are no parking fees, welcoming beach infrastructure of bbq pavilions and less people than in Cronulla, Bondi or Manly.

Wollongong Cbd is showing signs of struggling businesses.   There is a much reduced David Jones, but retail sales may bot be encouraging, especially for the smaller shops and eateries.   Crown Street Mall looks awesome and sea breezes also bless it due to its location near Wollongong Harbour.  The weekly Friday markets have stalls operated by people outside town and things are asked for at Sydney prices.   Maybe Thursday to Friday evenings show the most economic activity but not on other nights.

The Ilawarra may best be described as a residential corridor rather than a bee hive of business, innovation and consumption.
There can be no innovative plans or design to make the Illawarra prosper better for the future. It is seen as a university campus town whose fortunes can depend on foreign markets.  No high tech footprint has arisen in all these years.
Wind farms are planned by the government outside Wollongong Harbour but the energy generated can possibly mostly serve the burgeoning populations of Greater Sydney up north.

The tourism potential of the Illawarra has not risen to what can be.   Even the world class UCI cycling event in 2022 was amazingly not promoted like in Europe or North America. 

#yongkevthoughts

The Land of the Long White Cloud

 

Viewing New Zealand as only a refuge from nuclear war is to under rate the country's potential, its advantageous features and uniqueness.

When NZ as a nation signed the nuclear non profileration Treaty, it was quickly recognised as likely safe geographically away from military nuclear impact, especially when it was perceived nuclear risks were higher in the Northern Hemisphere.

The rather more pure nature of the NZ environment has potential for hosting technology industries that do not tolerate pollution.  When congestion, industry and energy needs have significantly caused low and bad quality of air, water and resources in many countries, the refreshing alternative in NZ is not sufficiently recognised.

As the rest of world gets quagmired in more military, trade and cultural squabbles, NZ's value can rise in the background - provided NZ does not get involved in geopolitical alliances that can unnecessarily drag any nation down fighting for the causes and agenda of other nations.

Human beings will find the present serene nature of NZ life attractive for better health, creativity and other factors that more powerful societies lack of.

The challenge for NZ is to develop a more viable economic landscape instead of just relying on its past and present framework.
For years, over reliance on tourism, agriculture, higher education and movie making has exposed NZ to the vagaries of foreign markets.

When and where the economy does not work enough, people leave.  When and where seeds of future economic growth are seriously and correctly planted, a better future awaits.

Significant funding, planning and removal of roadblocks accelerate the flourishing of new sectors - perhaps those that utilise effective wi-fi capabilities, encourage experimental laboratories and use the higher educational or skill sets of the residents.  Possibilities can be found in biotechnology, artificial intelligence, food security and advanced transportation.

Super rich celebrities cannot treat NZ as a doomsday housing back up and should invest more to develop NZ in relevant growth industries.

NZ must never be seen as only a stopover or providing just scenic panoramas.   She must identify and develop her niche qualities already existing or waiting to grow up.

#yongkevthoughts

Sri Lanka Today

 

Sri Lanka March 2024

The island nation has lots of walking at natural sites and religious places, a variety of food familiar to Malaysia's multi-racial demographics, interesting town walks, varying climate zones from mountains to coasts, Dutch historical influences and several options for adventure experiences.

Travel distances are user friendly, with destinations usually reachable one way between one hour and 90 minutes by road.  The way Sri Lankans drive can be so precise and shockingly close to one another on its mostly narrow roads.

Somehow I found the meats used in curries were pretty dry or hard.  Exception was in pork black curry.  Fish is generally more palatable, as in grilled or in curry dishes.

Escalators are rare outside Colombo and walking up two steps of flights to go to a meal floor is common.  King Coconut water, dhall curry, mudcrab and bananas are tops in my choice, but not durian types grown here. Tea quality as you know is outstanding, with ambiant walks in the midst of tea plantations around Nuwara Eliya.

The Sri Lankan economy is still in the doldrums.  There is this ever rising cost of entrance fees payable only in USD to enter tourist sites.  Locals on the street are friendly but realities of costs of living cause many to approach foreigners in not the most savoury manner.

There are sights and scenes in Sri Lanka that remind us of Malaya in the old times. Surprisingly the level of understanding and ability to speak English has fallen.

Hotel rooms, even at four star level, can be lit up better.  Toiletries for guests can be minimal.   Tv sets in the countryside often have Dialog brand wifi transmitters.  Buffet breakfasts are the norm for tourists, with a balanced selection of local, Thai and Western dishes.  The safety of tap water supply is better than in Thailand and Indochina, but boiling water and use of bottled water are advised

Your skill in the art of negotiation upfront for ride prices makes tuk tuk journeys more calming, although the pollution in Colombo streets can be a problem and it is better to ride with face masks on. You can pay in cash for Uber and Pick Me shared drive services. Grab is not available, unlike in South east Asia.

The emphasis for perfect and untainted copies of US dollar notes received by Sri Lankans can grow to be an irritating issue for unaware tourists.  Immigration points on arrival and departure are efficient and arrival cards must be prior filled up online.  Lining up for our foreign passports to be stamped seems more efficient at Colombo Airport compared to KLIA.  Baggage claim carousels are better serviced at Colombo than at Sydney.

The heat of the midday sun can be less tempered than south east Asia as Sri Lanka is further north of the Equator. 

Bentota, south west of the island, can be so commercialised with its beaches. The waters of the Indian Ocean look and so full at the beach, with stirring winds and gorgeous play of sunrise and sunset.

Galle remains a top choice in experiencing Sri Lanka, even if it is heavily imbued with colonial influences.  It has many tourists and inspiring accommodation - and if you care to walk along its streets, the true character of Galle surfaces, as it rose to be a strategic trading port dealing with the dangers and opportunities from the outside world.

My overall preferred experience in Sri Lanka is being together with locals waiting for Pooja in the very room so near the Buddha's tooth relic in Kandy.  Lining up behind in my choices are the river boat ride along the Madura River with its many isles, indigenious peoples, cinnamon trees and on to meeting the sandbanks of the Indian Ocean coast.  We were truly relaxed staying for three nights at the Livvy Waters Villas in Dambulla, with high ceiling cabins, spacious stone floor bathrooms and the chatter of lizards at night.

Nuwara Eliya, referred to as Little England, is nestled amongst cool and hilly landscapes - while Ella is a budding party hub for young Europeans.  The Nine Arch Bridge is a bit of hype and can be missed if you are on a busy schedule.  Why two peaks refer to the Biblical Adam beats my understanding.

We had a resourceful and energetic
young driver for our afternoon safari across the Yala National Park, but the variety of fauna observable is much less than in Africa.

Embarking on to Buddhist religious sites can at times demand the patience and passion of a pilgrim.
At the UN World Heritage site of Anarudharupa in north central Sri
Lanka, we were required to remove our footwear and walk on red hot concrete, brick or bare earth for long distances in the open, when the temperature was 36 degrees C. (It was burning hot for our soles even when we wore the allowed socks).

The hike up to Lion Rock in the Singhalese cultural hub of Sigiriya can be demanding to those not used to rock steps of varying width or height, slippery rain conditions and energy exerted up or down steep slopes.

The dawn opener on state TV is a collage of recogntion to all the main faiths in Sri Lanka and not just to Buddhism.  Singapore in contrast remains strictly secular in just playing the National Anthem on Mediacorp.

Tuti or Thank You, Sri Lanka for opening my eyes, heart and thoughts.

#yongkevthoughts

PS. We did not visit Jaffna and Trincomalee on this visit.

Calling for a Rethink

 

Since Covid management began, with all its downstream implications for labour availability, logistics supply and customer service, everyone has come across disruptions in accessibility.

The rise of contactless transactions has encouraged scenarios where and when we receive no or little explanations for problems and poor service - and the frequent feeling that we just have to take it on the chin.

In Australia, the  occurence of confronting climate disasters has coincided with the downside of Covid management since 2020.  As a nation, we over depend on manufactured stuff mostly from overseas.
Although we have sufficient food production security, the society has only a few weeks of fuel supplies.  Over reliance on visitor and migrant labour for harvests also meant a  crisis when borders were shut down for months on end to minimise the spread of the Covid in 2020 and 2021 - but in 2022 most Covid infections spread like wildfire within domestic confines.

Lettuce is now down to one dollar from 12 dollars each in my local fresh produce markets, while bananas have risen in price per kilo.  The swings in supply and pricing seem to jump from one basic product to another.  They just amplify the vulnerabilities already existing in the way basic necessities are produced, acquired and brought to the ultimate consumer - and some of the causes and effects have nothing to do with Covid.

Many of the things we utilise and take for granted are distributed and controlled by duopolies - the serious lack of competition in business will undermine the quality and standard of life and economy for Australia in the years to come.

We also have too few big players in the banking, telecommunications, pharmaceutical, food retail, insurance, power utility, transport, infrastructure, media and airline sectors.  That virtually covers many requirements in our daily lives.

These really big players are becoming too big to fail and more of society's taxpayer monies are being fed to them.  The extent of choice for consumers continue to narrow. 

Federal government in Canberra has significantly outsourced services to commercial providers, consulting groups and grant recipients in aged care, education, national strategic processes and vital areas previously handled by a supposedly more benign hand of elected governance.

How the best interests of Australian individuals, communities and society are best handled by profit seeking market players give rise to serious questions.

So when society and her denizens continue to be fed and addicted to obvious negatives, it gets even harder to break the cause and effect cycle. Reflect on the push for opiods in the intricate web experienced by the USA.   Think of the continuing promotion of excess consumption of sugar, gambling, wifi and other dependencies.

The continuing Covid years on the other hand have awakened a level of personal and group consciousness as to how our society, economy and personal reflection can be better.

#yongkevthoughts

Islands In the Stream

Three islands of varying sizes have found themselves geographically located next to influential next door neighbours. TASMANIA Tasmania, so near the Antarctic, compared to most other lands, stands out as the pristine ecological opportunity to still seriously take care of, despite the march of economic explotation, hydro water engineering, mining and cutting down of its quality forests. Its socio-political fate is significantly linked to mainland Australia across the Bass Straits. With a relatively less dense population compared to even New Zealand's North and South Islands, its First Peoples of Lutuwrita met head on big time with different civilisations four hundred years ago. It still relies on tourism monies, now cut off because of the borders closed as a keymeasure to manage a Coronavirus we seem to not fully understand and able to control. Tasmania's other virtues, however, cannot be over looked apart from use of the land and surrounding seas. The advantage of being remote can now come to the fore. While Earth increasingly shows strains of being over utilised and over populated in parts, Tasmania can be a unique laboratory for innovative social ideas, technological progress and as a biosecurity haven. Its status as a Federated State with Australia still means limitations in its own empowerment and the interference of Canberra, which has a Federal Government acting in varying levels of benefit to the Southern Antipodes. Like the rest of Australia, it is blessed with land, a lot of it in Tasmania being arable, although it can be mountainous in its centre. Islands do have a greater inherent urgency and character to be more self-sufficient than others. Tasmania ranks as 26th in the ranking of island size on Earth. It has more rainfall than most of desert island mainland Australia. Its socio-political dynamics are most closely linked with Victoria. In terms of military security, it is furthest located from the most vulnerable northern corners of the nation facing South East Asia. Tasmanian authorities can increase cooperation with New Zealand - with both countries creating the best hub for clean fresh produce, outdoor sports and different lifestyles. SINGAPORE Education,leadership, meritocracy, resilient security and having a strategic mindset are what the Republic of Singapore emphasises. This five pronged approach can be foremost in mind applied by Tasmania's Governments to ensure its competitive edge with the rest of the world. Singapore has no natural resources and yet it is now a developed nation with a standard of living, currency value and GDP per capita higher than most other countries. I reflect on several other similar achieving small city states from history. So the advantage of having a land area smaller than so many islands can mean it is easier to manage - or not. Size can always be a two edged sword and it is always not a factor to just rely on. Though small in acreage and mostly flat levelled it is, Singapore has a population comparable to Greater Sydney. The Republic has a complex social heritage like Sri Lanka - both nations were colonies of Britain, prospered as entrepots and are located on major shipping routes. The Government of Singapore values every inch of land it has in its territory and maps its details accordingly - apart from being so experienced in land reclamation. It also emphasises in ensuring extensive foliage as far it can for its populace. Landscaping and provision of public facilities are significantly evident. Such attributes by its Government echo the hunger for advancement despite the odds. Progress can only come but at a price, use of smart approaches, striving for excellence and inculcation of national unity in its peoples. The economy is dependent on migrant labour, openness in trading and travel and adoption of forward looking technolgies. Advancement also means more than survival. The island is a Red Dot once politically attached to the Malayan Peninsular. Its proximity to the Indonesian islands implies that what happens next door can easily and quickly over flow into Singapore. Within ten minutes of takeoff, a Singapore Airlines flight aircraft is already on to Malaysian or international air space. Its alliances and past history with Britain now has cascaded down stream through time into a closer political relationship with the USA, Australia and New Zealand, as well necessarily with its ASEAN neighbours and an ever prosperous and powerful China. Singapore thrived as a middle man and can still play a useful role as a broker on the ever changing stage of world wide politics. The Republic does not host any American military bases, unlike Australia, South Korea and Japan - but its largest trading partner is China. Singapore is sensitive to and emphatic about maintaining racial harmony in its society. Developments in Malaysia, separated only by two causways, are always top priority as its nearest neighbour has policies, rules and mindsets which can be so different from the core values of contemporary Singapore. Better economic performance by Singaporeans can attract respect, disdain and rivalry from others. Security of supplies to its populace lies at the base of Singaporean existence and its government can be masters of crisis management. SRI LANKA The former Ceylon was a gem for the colonial British Empire. Like Singapore, different ethnic groups were brought together to live and work on an island the size of Tasmania. Since independence, the dominant Singhalese have asserted primary control in politics - and minorities have been disadvantaged by civil war, religious divisions and poor economic performanace. Sri Lanka, unlike Singapore and like Tasmania, is rich in natural resources. Its rich cultural heritage can draw tourists but its mismanagement lies at the base of many problems that persist today. In contrast,the island's landscapes and wild life are a stand out delight. Muslims, the biggest minority of Tamils, Burghers, Moors, Malays, Chinese and the Indigenous Vedda also live in the Republic of Sri Lanka. The Arabs, Portuguese and Dutch adventurer traders preceeded the Brits, sailing on their way to Malacca and the Spice Islands. Add to this mix an agricultural and plantation based way of life, the power of the military and a rather obvious modification of the Westminster form of democracy. Located between the Indian Ocean and across the Palk Straits to India, its primary religion is Buddhism, spread long ago through its larger neighbour. The island nation is also seen as strategic by superpowers. It was an important stop for flights between London and Singapore. Its idyliic coasts, cooling hills and inherent serendipity contrast with the brew of a social complexity still simmering for a relatively small country. Sri Lanka can perhaps take a leaf out of the book used by Singapore to minimise racial and religious conflict. Steps can be taken to reduce a climate of extremism, intolerance and excessive political infighting. Strengths in health, education and family resilience can be highlighted to build a better society. The equatorial climate can infuse an easy air of casualness on the island, so the violence experienced and witnessed in the Republic's history can be shocking. Even if one took no sides in the long drawn out civil war, one cannot escape feeling the ruthlessness in which it was carried out, with many casaulties and victims , especially for civillians in the north-eastern corner of the country. The recent history of Sri Lanka teaches others, if we want to escape its unfortunate experience, to never let intolerance in all forms permeate. Socio-economic development must prioritise to help all sections of Sri Lankan society. Investment funding is critical to Sri Lanka. It can reach out to build more trade links between Africa and Asia. It cannot afford to be held back by its current deficiencies but it must look to itself more to develop its future. IN CONCLUSION Three different islands are undergoing different paths. You may have visted them to chill out in travel-frenzy times before the past 2 years. The best asset each island discussed above has are its people and their determination to succeed further in the 21st century. Each island offers us a most rewarding diversity in food, blessed by its location and surrounding influences, but what in the Big Picture can each island offer themselves? Their peoples do have strengths and positive values which can be further encouraged and utilised to rely upon when faced with future perils, especially when they can be drawn into the problems or conflicts of their specific region. Each of these islands can play their role as save havens, whether from outside turmoil,to contain contamination or for alternative lifestyles. However, each to has to confront their own Achilles heel in this process and seek renewed opportunities in the unique fields they can excel in. Whatever threats and disadvantages it faces, each of the three islands also needs continuing future leaders who will rise above it all. yongkevthoughts Tasmania 65022 square km 2020 Population 541071 No 26 Ranking in island Size Singapore 728.6 square km 2020 Population 5.7 million - Sri Lanka 65610 square km 2020 Population 21.14 million No 25 Ranking in Island Size City of Wollongong NSW 221 square km 2020 Population 307407 City of Perth Western Australia 14 square km 2020 Population 30971 City of Adelaide South Australia 3260 square km 2020 Population 1.38 million Greater Melbourne Victoria 9993 square km 2020 Population 5.13 million Greater Brisbane Queensland 1343 square km 2020 Population 2.56 million Greater Sydney New South Wales 12370 square km 2020 Population 5.37 million Greater Auckland New Zealand 637 square km 2020 Population 1.6 million Island of Penang Malaysia 293 square km 2020 Population 1.8 million

Malaya Independent for 64 Years

Britain granted independence to Peninsular Malaya on this day 64 years ago - 31 August 2021. Malaya then became part of the Federation of Malaysia in 1963, joining Sabah and Sarawak, on the island of Borneo, and Singapore. In 1965, Singapore became its own Republic on leaving this Federation. As a child having a charmed life on Penang Island, every anniversary of this occasion was anticipated with much fanfare. The lyrics of the National Anthem were reexamined in earnest. Specials were screened at theatres and on telly. No special cakes or delicacies were made though, even for a food obsessed society. Neighbours did however come out in compounds to chat with each other. English was still spoken with gusto - and everything Brit was still much held with respect, much akin to parents in contemporary Malaysia, having an embedded respect of university education in good reliable England. I never questioned then what we were celebrating independence from. Sure, the history books said we were free from the yoke of imperialism, economic exploitation and rule by a foreign race. But I could already enjoy the heritage of what Britain left behind in other positive aspects. There was a Westminster based Parliamentary system. We already had royalty, from nine component states, left intact by colonial interests - in case anyone missed Queen Liz. There were dependable legal and governance systems already working in the Malayan Civil Service. Transport infrastructure, public health care, education mechanisms and economic pillars were already well established, much better than in most newly founded nations. There was a strong foundation of family, criminal, corporate and tax law like in Australia. Friends of my parents, my classmates and neighbours relished in enjoying commonly shared values, than focus on differences. Socially, we immersed themselves in laughter, helping each other out and cultivating joint hobbies. Gatherings were more spontaneous than formal, centring round fruit seasons, cultural festivals, good weather days and when people needed a listening ear. In the classroom, there was a comradeship that transversed the boundaries of religion, ethnicity and class. We valued the English language for its dominance in world trade, academia and international networking. We learnt our respective mother tongues. By law, we learnt the Malay lingua franca. In Penang, there was a Patois spoken that is still as colourful as in New Orleans, Papua New Guinea or in South Africa. Like in Sydney and Melbourne these days, we had access to several cuisines - and still do. Friends of diverse backgrounds used to eat together at the same table, but I understand now they no longer do, as much. We picked up learning how to use the whole plethora of ingredients from well tried recipes from around Asia and Europe. My Eurasian Uncle Cornelius exemplified the closeness of Malaysians when I was growing up. He personified Christmas to me, with a joy from his Dutch heritage and his ability to make magic of a day when he visited.  Mum and our Sri Lankan neighbour' s wife made curries.   I still recall the beauty of furniture in the lounge when we visited Cikgu Iskandar.  I picked up bad words in Tamil, Hokkien, Cantonese, Japanese, Mandarin and Malay - and they did have a punch which can hold their own in an ocker Aussie pub. Soccer, badminton, late night suppers, jungle and beach trial walks, hide outs on Friday arvos after school - they all had no over the top racial identification. There was a strong underlying and unspoken bond of just being humans, of growing up in and of connecting to society. What seemed like benign bureaucratic practices - like of being identified by race and religion on ID cards, instead of just being Malaysian - in retrospect, evolved into tools of separation, social alienation and discrimination. Critics blame the colonial authorities for laying down the seeds of the current socio-political structure in current day Malaysia. They cite the "divide and rule" strategy utilised to manage a diverse society like Malaya before independence. However, once they were their own rulers, the local politicians of the day reinforced this policy, instead of applying fresh and innovative approaches like meritocracy, equity and tolerance. As a child in Malaysia, I vaguely recall a night curfew imposed in Penang, due to riots and social disorder. Such tools of social and political control can be primitive in looking back, for now there are other covert or other more effective tools of political manipulation, corruption in theft of state funds, mass cajoling of the emotions of voters and gerrymandering of electorate borders. Malaysia's ideal democratic practices have sadly been whittled or hijacked as the nation moved to the 21st century.   There has grown a culture of dependency on state hand outs to a majority of its denizens, who dominate the military, civil service, universities, police, banks and economic or trading monopolies.  The growing emphasis by a series of Prime Ministers since the 1980s in linking political power with financial kleptocracy measures has taken a severe impact on the nation's vibrancy and future prospects. Malaysia is a land of abundant resources, scenic landscapes and untapped potential. It has been the less than desired management by its leaders that have now rendered it less attractive for investment potential and educational strengths than its nearby neighbours of Vietnam, Indonesia and Singapore. My birthplace has petroleum resources, agricultural wealth, manufacturing capability and strides between China, India and Australasia. Yet some key factors continues to suppress its future potential - leadership, mindset, community attitudes, technological prowess, history and inertia. Blame shifting has also been a significant characteristic of its past. Soon there may be no one else to put the blame on, apart from themselves. Before the arrival of Covid, the seeds of problems and embedded issues have not been resolved. A pandemic only amplifies the weaknesses and rifts already raging in a nation. So far from the evening equatorial thunderstorms, smells and sights of a colourful street and the chatter of boyhood mates, I reflect - can Malaysia turn round a meaningful corner? #yongkevthoughts

The G7 today

The G7 looks like an alumni of the victors from the two devastating world wars of the 20th century. Definitely not, as historical enemy states from that era, Japan and Germany, are sitting on the table as part of the seven core members. North America and Europe contribute most of this so called select group of seven nations. Past allies like Russia and China from those world wars are now viewed by this mostly Western Alliance as hostile. Asia-Pacific is represented only by Japan. Is the G7 a group of the current and growing powerhouse economies? Banish that idea - Brazil, India, Indonesia and China are not in this group of seven. Smaller economies like Australia and South Africa are asked to attend on the side lines. Someone I know pointed out to me that the G7 nations, except for Canada, all have USA military bases on their soil. Some quarters view the G7 as a core military alliance in a future world war scenario for the 21st century. Instead of seizing an opportunity to further cooperate for peaceful global development, this interpretation emphasises the significance and powerful influence of weapons producers and traders in our politically unstable world. Does the G7 represent one side of a potential clash of civilisations? Or is it a manifestation of one side of an evolving trade war? Some Asians I know view the G7 as an alliance of Western powers, trying to ensure that its long held dominance in geopolitics is not whittled away. The problem with this opinion is why Japan is part of and Russia is not part of the G7. Yet, Africans, Asians apart from Japan, Latin Americans, Indigenous nations and Middle Easterners are notably not members of the G7. So it is definitely an exclusive club. More likely the G7 is an alumni of past and still current dominant powers, which increasingly have to deal with the realities, on various growing fronts, of a quick changing contemporary world. #yongkevthoughts

We Will Carry On

 

How many club memberships, living in Australia, have you chalked up over the years?  I am not referring to exclusive country or city clubs where you network with the rich, politically connected and inner sanctum of useful contacts.   The prevalence of these other clubs I am talking about here, across the many suburbs of this Great Land, often depend on turnover, a huge but cheap membership base, gaming machines, a bistro of varying quality and some measure of community activities.

Increasingly significant is the local barista.  Over many years, so many blends of coffee beans have come out of Australia, establishing Aussie brands in this space with a strong reputation beyond its shores.  The routine of having brunch or breakky has contributed to the new styled cafes mushrooming with new fangled food recipes accompanying the beverage.  Tea has nevertheless not lost its embedded loyalty, together with other penchants for avocado smash, sourdough toasts, Granola mixes and sauteed mushrooms.

Beer craft and wine appreciation communions now express themselves in watering holes not just in the cities, but also in populated regional hubs.  The accompanying pizzas,  burgers and randomly performing local musician adds extra zest and layers of attraction to visit such venues.  The traditional Aussie pub though still stands tall, but can face challenges without the tribes gathering pre and post footy games, the family gathering for a wholesome Aussie roast and its truly vital role in the fabric of its local community.

And then in capital cities, Asian run bistros seem to be a  contemporary cornerstone of those RSLs and comparable clubs.  Vietnamese and Chinese operators provide alternative menus to pasta, Wellingtons, schnitzels and salads.

Migrant food has also been hipsterised and hybridised with fusion offerings, contemporary presentations and more use of alternative ingredients.  Outlets offering  such experiences are evolving a unique trend in the development of what foreigners increasingly acknowledge as uniquely Australian.  Drop by a new styled bakery run by Koreans, French and Japanese  here - while we still have access to traditional stuff from the Italians, Lebanese and our grandmother's Aussie cookbooks.

The roadhouse is so important for many remote communities, truckers and tourists out in the Woop-Woop.  It is a petrol station, sandwich bar, souvenir shop, grocery outlet, cafe, toilet stop, rest area and contact point for many both enduring and enjoying the vast, seemingly empty land that is Australia.

Our borders with other countries has been closed for so many months, but we still enjoy the Long Drive within our own state or when varying governments permit, across to other states on this continental island.  Straight roads for many kilometres delightfully surprise our visitors - and also coastal scenic drives, sojourns across farmlands, adventures across deserts or Alpine country.   What most of us agree upon is to avoid traffic jammed scenarios in our capital cities during the so called rush hour - or the increasing high tolls on roads labelled as Connex.

The water source, whether it is a constructed indoor or outdoor pool in suburban hubs, lake or a rock pool along one of our countless beaches, beckons many and perpetuates the influence of water in the life of many Aussies.

Most Aussies still reside within 100 km of its magnificient coasts. Swimming and surfing are anchor sports, whether competitive, recreational or
for exercise, in the fabric of this Great Southern Land.   Not many activities are as physically wholesome, mentally refreshing and rewarding as interacting with water.

Expressing one's self, taking part in public protests and telling a yarn also run through the veins of Aussie history.   At times, the giving of opinions, as overly encouraged by social media channels, politics and so called democratic freedoms, can lead to no action and just talk. The contemporary disease of mixing of facts with diverse views, manipulation of selective truth and aggressive marketing agendas by strong vested interests, has however thrown more than a spanner in this unrelenting confusing cauldron.

The unique spirit of being a larrakin still is very much alive in the Australian character.   However, this can be challenged by some aspects of a rising trend of political correctness which can at times lose this essential quality of humour and humaneness in negotiations, dealings  and various transactions of society.

Australia has always thought itself as the Land of the Fair Go.   Building upon layers of viable cultures, philosophies and traditions, we and our society have special routines, daily regimes and refreshing attitudes, when we zoom in on the beneficial and positive ones.  In the course of a day, each of us can find opportunity to have that healthy breakky, soak in a rewarding outdoor activity, press on with that work challenge, catch up with mates and try that unusual dish down the road.

#yongkevthoughts

Not Post Apocalypse, But It Can Be

 Around a year after the reported arrival of Covid 19,  we walked around the main street of a most familiar stomping ground - one of many comparable suburbs around Australia.  This one is served by a functioning rail station, albeit a secondary line outside a capital city.  The years leading to 2020 has seen a spike in small retail outlets, mainly in food, grocery, coffee, basic health services, household needs and nothing too fancy.  I did note that this micro economy was mainly based on consumption and a quiet lifestyle - and not so much on investment except in constructing more residential units.

The future of an economy, big or small, need not be fully tied to its past.   What sustained in history can no longer be relevant.  Changes coming in the future need to be worked out to take advantage of them.  The Covid 19 year has not been kind to the viability in spending at small businesses, which do form the back bone of the Australian economy.  It underscores the urgency for innovation, transformation and longer term planning in what we do at various levels of our personal lives, the health of our community and the financial growth of society.

Walking down on the still well maintained pavements (several had in fact been upgraded by Council recently), I observed that some long standing shops had gone, but replacements still are mired depending on personal consumption.  The long standing chemist near the main set of lights has gone, but the pub still is there.  The suburban version of a bank branch, ethnic culinary restaurant and medical centre all survive, but the travel agent is closed.  There is no significant sign of the future possibilities - are there shops writing analytical programmes, experimenting with new business models and tapping into cost wise customer interaction platforms?  We still depend on petroleum to drive us, our food supplies and online orders of purchases.  There are more solar panels on roofs in this neighbourhood, but mostly we still have an energy supply grid that relies on coal, monopolistic players and political demands.

For a long while, I reflect on the state of business in that suburb in early 2021.  A cafe has turned into a barber shop, a corporate child care business has been swallowed up by a bigger rival and one of the existing chain supermarkets is getting more shabby.  On the brighter side, the Returned Service League has renovated and improved its operations, while vehicle traffic on the main road - Princes Highway -shows the return of more paying customers.  Underlying like a strong thread of commonality are signs of ageing of society here -  with medical related services vying with cafe activity.

There is also an increased presence of franchised and chain business operations, with names that started in the nearby Big Smoke and replicating its operations for new markets in areas with growing residential population.  Does it mean better service?  Not necessarily, as staff can be put under more pressure, delivery can become more impersonal and performance  is watched like an eagle to achieve revenue targets.   What retail banks went through in the past 30 years at the street level is now beginning to be happening with other retail businesses.

Disenfranchisement of the work productive young can be forecast in such a suburb.  Schools are busy but their graduates look to greener pastures outside this suburb. The nearby university has learnt in a disturbed way the over reliance and non diversification of its student markets from overseas.   The regional town and area is not earmarked for any exciting specialisation in growth of a forward looking technology.  The region grew because of extraction of natural resources and it still depends on such income.  The place is not in any ruling Government's macro plan to provide any public services.  Without any medium and longer term vision, the region has become more residential than pro-active in improving its lot.   Even its city centre landscape has evidently become more reliable on stamp duty and Council fees than something more promising.

Potential advantages of the region - a clean environment, human talent and development of businesses of the future - are under played.   I would not say this area has been caught in a time warp, but neither is it moving forward to move out of its usual problems and issues.  Somehow I suspect the attitude is more inward looking than asking "Why Not?".   Does the region want to grab an opportunity not to be an appendage of the nearby capital city?   Does the region not want to utilise the unique offerings of its hinterland?  Does the region just want to be content to be a sea change for people?

Key Risks for Australia's Security

What do you reckon are the key threats to Australian security as a nation?

In the mist of walking through the hype of different agendas of different factions, let us examine some realities.

1. Why countries were invaded in history includes diversion away from the internal problems facing the leaders of invading armies. Will Australia play into the hands of such ploys?

2 Interference in the internal affairs of foreign nations. The penchant of western societies to criticise other countries for alleged and real breaches in human rights and democratic practices can trigger flashpoints in international relations.

3. Significant decreases in the technological, military and economic power of Australia. Unlike post World War 2, competition stakes have shot up. The largest buyers of arms in the world are all in Asia, a region which the largest island nation is located so close to. Australia is increasingly seen as a place to dig out unprocessed raw materials. It has not sufficiently developed its futuristic sectors to be on the leading edge, unlike the USA, China, Germany, Israel and Japan.

4. Socio-political drivers and religious expansion from other cultures can be a two edged sword for Australia, depending on whose views you ask for.

Western colonisation from the 16th to the 20th centuries was driven by powerful trade, religious and political interplay. The relatively generous migration opportunity offered by Australia to diverse races and religions is a remarkable contrast to relatively closed immigration policies of other nations.
When small South Pacific nations face issues on sea level rise, lack of infrastructure and maintaining their economic growth, Australia no longer holds the monopoly for influence. The Pacific is bordered by other nations like Canada, China, New Zealand and Japan. 

5. Loss of leadership and influence by Australia for neighbouring nations.

South-east Asia is a complex tapestry of religious, political and economic competition. Australian troops sacrificed to stop the tide of Communism there but that has been mostly forgotten in the countries so saved.

6. The temptation to invade Australia to exploit its natural resources. The Imperial Japanese army invaded China and south east Asia last century to expand access to natural and food resources, apart from acquiring territory for a pan Asiatic empire.

7. Climate deterioration in Australia, including drought, loss of arable land and increased vulnerability to inclement weather. Such a scenario adds to the stable of threats within Australia, instead of the usual harping of threats from outside the country.

8. The lack of a viable core population to defend Australia's vast borders. The continuing focus on protecting more of Australia's southern states, instead of its northern coastline, can be due to climatic, population and economic factors, but strategic reality cannot be denied.

9. Burgeoning populations of nearby countries, especially when their cultural make up is so different and Australia is such an empty land with a total current population less than for greater Jakarta.

10. Australia not maturing to a stand independent from allied nations in the past.  

Risks grow when previous strong allies have shown a remarkable record of utilising Australia and its forces for proxy wars.

#yongkevthoughts

Heading Into the Year 2020

As the world hurls to 2020, what are the significant impact matters that can churn the economy, cause social grief and affect key things in our life that we may have taken for granted so far?
History has always been an account of tensions and conflict between conservatives and progressives, between the haves and have nots and between those with superior technology and those without.
Wars have been fought in the name of religion, control of financial interests, ideological beliefs and the alliance of manipulative politics.
The greater movement of populations, the increased power of captured analytical information, more powerful military means and a shift in world power patterns have however changed the strategic game.
Yet our world is still divided into nations, a system perhaps outdated by commercial expansion, technology dominance and heightened means of mobility.
Cultural imperatives continue to complicate the progress of mankind to cooperate on a holistic platform instead of on the usual competitive tribal basis. Such cultural factors range across strongly held views on wealth dominance, political structures, racial silos and social order.
Some hotspots arise from historical dilemmas. Others are rooted in rising or changed expectations. Yet some issues arise because of significant wealth redistributions and therefore real shifts of power held. The hold of Western dominance has changed - but at the same time deep historical conflicts have not been resolved.
The world has not weaned off its insatiable appetite for petroleum.
Nations may not be fully prepared for the consequences of over utilising other Earthly resources in the quest for ever increasing economic and population growth. Decimation of non-human species continues relentlessly with deforestation, spread of falsity in communication and misuse of technology.
My list of suggested most risky features for the world include:
1. The inability to optimally manage aging societies in places like Europe, Japan, China, Australia, the USA and
Singapore.
2. The continuing denial and lack of sufficient action by the powers that be of mankind's significant negative impact on Mothership Earth.
3. The misuse of evolving new techology for greater control of and enhancing greater addiction by the masses.
4. Religious, cultural and tribal conflicts that continue to create havoc, economic slowdowns and lower quality of life for the people and lands inflicted by such malaise.
4. The pain of adjustments and changes to the current pattern of political systems and control.
5. The multiracial and diverse populations of several countries can pose both opportunity or conflict.
6. Nations that do not transform their economies in a brave new world are going to be left behind.
7. Conflicts can now be conducted between nations on many fronts. They can be far from just battling warships, aircraft and landed troops.
8. After a period of liberalisation, several nations increasingly begin to look inward for strengthened political, economic and cultural resilience.
Brexit, continuing corruption, political bullying, rising nationalism, carbon footprints left by increased air travel, racism, increased sea levels, rising impersonalisation, tariff wars, engineered elections and negative air pollution are just examples of the symptoms.
What is the world collectively doing about the causes of its major problems? What can you, as an individual, help to mitigate them?
#yongkevthoughts

Ten Nations, Ten Economies

China, USA, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Russia, Brazil, India and Indonesia - these forecasted biggest economies by 2050, in no particular order, as predicted by PwC, seem to have the largest populations as well, apart from the UK and Germany.

Three of them - USA, Russia and China - also have sizeable warfare capability.
At the same time, the current USA administration views China as a competitive threat in various fields, whether they be high tech, trading, political systems, economic capacity and more.

The USA has a strong network of military bases around the world but domestically its people deserve renewal and expansion of public infrastructure. China has currently only one military base on foreign soil and within and without China itself, has built up impressive transport links, including High Speed Rail links, contemporary bridges and new highways.

China spends much effort and funding on improving itself, thrives on its Confucian based educational system and emphasises on social order - while the USA is a huge arms supplier, does not renew for the future by replacing its core industries and has lots of freedom of expression.

The population disparity of the USA when compared with Russia and China adds to another dimension of analysis when more people have rising incomes. This implication echoes in market purchasing power, less reliance on overseas buyers, flexibility in economic growth and cultural pride.

Leadership in these three nations is determined differently - yet this is is a critical factor as to how the USA, China and Russia bear out in navigating their future path. The USA is a relatively young nation and was built by immigrants, when compared with the richer cultural and nationalistic traditions and heritage of Russia and China.

How will each of these three nations balance the all important pattern of strength of economy and power of political systems?

Germany seems to continue to be the financial leader of Europe in the 21st century. Historically, Europe has been a dramatic stage point of fierce militaristic contention. Russian, French, German, Austro-Hungarian and British forces have helped draw out the boundaries of the sub-continent today. The Middle East has influenced Europeans not only in the Rennaisance, but exported its religious, philosophical, scientific and cultural influences in a very regular and effective way.

How Germany deals with Russia as both economies lead this region in 2050 is important. Russia currently has a higher level of natural resources, economic growth potential and population than any other European country. Germany is a powerhouse of technology, scientific advancement and political leadership.

Yet Germany also finds itself at the interface between Christian and Muslim influences as it continues to enjoy its relatively better economic prosperity.

The UK is a shade of its once glorious dominance, which commenced when the sun set over its once world wide colonial empire. Still, it has developed a London centric financial hub, perhaps neglecting the economic future of the countryside, but attracting the skilled young from so many countries. The Royal Family provides a reliable institution to mesh with the checks and balances of its Westminster parliamentary system. 

Perhaps the stongest feature of the British economy is its relative openness to foreigners and foreign influences. This trait may be reduced when and if Brexit becomes a reality. Will Britain break up as a result of the consequences of Brexit? More certain is an economic downturn for Britain on its divorce from the EU.

Immigrants from its former colonies have added to the colour and vibrancy of its economy in the cities. The Industrial Revolution and the proceeds of colonial era trade laid very strong foundations tor the British economy. The important question is what the nation is investing for its future. Is it higher education, high tech or a reliable place to park and grow money?

Brazil will continue to be subject to socio-political instability risks as its demographics enjoy better wealth. How democracy can be modified or improved is yet to be seen even with better per capita incomes. Will the indigenous people within Brazil get a better life? The various demographics who live in Brazil will experience more expectations in the quality of life, as what we saw in China in the past three decades.

If history is to be repeated, better economic growth in Brazil can see more decimation of the forests, more upsets in the ecosystem and more financial inequities. Yet this is the opportunity for Portuguese speaking Brazil to provide a positive example to Latin American nations, even if the neighbours speak Spanish.

Mexico will be the powerhouse of Latin America. The nation has always been cast as the poorer cousin in North America, but has a pool of people more passionate to improve their lives. Crime, corruption and a big income gap have colluded to economically oppress the masses, together with a volatile and varying governing leadership. 

Emigration has offered a channel of relief, especially to other territories with a richer lifestyle and where people also speak Spanish. What the USA does is critical but the Mexican population, although less than that in the USA, is growing faster than their neighbour north across the border (Also reflect on Indonesian and Australian population parameters.)

Mexico relies on industries such as peteoleum, car manufacture, tourism, food, iron and steel plus consumer durables like clothes. It relies hugely on trade with the USA, Canada, Spain and Brazil. The country has to lift itself out from this profile as its economy grows - and it can be done with good leadership.

India does speak a variety of languages, including English, but is subject to nationalism risks and socio-political vulnerabilities. The nation is said to soon exceed the population of China, but how does the government harness the promise and talent of each individual? 

There is a significant diaspora of Indians, not only in south east Asia and south Africa, but also in the Western societies of the UK, Canada, the USA, Australia and New Zealand, plus in miscellaneous territories in the Caribbean and the South Pacific. Will this other talent pool also add to India's gigantic economic growth?

India has not developed the high degree of public infrastructure that China has. Whilst contemporary China downplays the role of religion, Indians place faith and prayer as part of every day life. 

India as a nation is a federated entity created by the departing colonials, and its variety of different cultural entities can be as varied as in Europe.

Japan was the original non European Boy Wonder in the 1970s, with its disciplined society, fascination and ability to implement effective processes, its powerful links between business and Government, a focussed educational system and a collective will to recover from its failed imperial military excesses. It is now a very mature economy, only with different work habits and attitudes from the Americans, but do share some of the positive charactetistics of the Germans.

Japan remains one of the few modern societies resistent to having large numbers of immigrants, apart from China, Pacific Ocean nations and several African states. It has prospered on maintaining a homogenous and unique culture and society. An aging society is forcing a rethink on such a policy, together with high pressures on the young in education and at work.

The economic growth of Japan has occured under the defence and military umbrella provided by the USA. When and if such arrangements end, the vulnerabilities of the Japanese islands can resurface. Japan's geopolitical position between the strategic and economic interests of China and the USA can be a two edged sword.

The rise of China has had ripple effects on Japan, when both cultures and nations has had intertwining relationships historically, in trade and in competition.

The mystery question for me is Indonesia, with an outsized population compared to its neighbours and subject to social and religious risks plus a huge income divide. Indonesia spreads across an archipelago of islands with room to grow in personal wealth and quality of life.

There are huge natural resources to utilise for thee masses instead of just for the just privileged and connected families. Risks of radicalisation continue to counter weigh against the benefits of growth. The military, religious leaders and a national consciousness are critical in propelling an optimal path for a growing economy.

Brazil, Mexico and India do not face the issues of declining populations in the next 30 years. The population size is only but one of the several factors promoting economic growth. Technology, governance stability, having strategic advantages, avoiding the damage from warfare, having insightful and progressive leadership, possessing unique natural and man made resources plus a political system that encourages innovation do help.