Another War, Another Fuel Shortage

Does anyone still recall being on the cusp of the world wide pandemic in late January 2020? Was there a creeping silence as to what could possibly come ahead, as youngsters prepared for another school year across Australia, as east Asia welcomed another Lunar New Year and as supermarket shelves in Europe were loaded with taken for granted signs of plenty? Six years later, we are beginning to possibly experience a Deja Vu of a familiar unfolding scenario in our daily lives. Medicines essential on a regular basis may become scarce or increasingly unavailable due to logistical problems. Availability of supplies of diesel, refined petroleum and liquified gas are reduced and can stop indefinitely, subject to political play. Retail prices of electricity and gas spike again as their generation and flow are dependent on ships delivering petroleum along the world's critically trade strategic passageways. Increasing interest rates spiral inflation for businesses and reduce affordability at the retail level. The linkages in a globalised world continue to be saddled with issues as to how to effectively move trucks, ships and aircraft. Impact on prices charged for construction and building materials is one example of a downside that can ripple through society. Impact on viability and pricing for delivery of goods, food and parcels can slow the dynamics of online and off site purchases. At this stage, in late March 2026, do you feel a deafening or selective silence from authorities, governments and those running our society, about the current and potential risks and outcomes, should there be a continuation of shortages in supplies, increased volume of arnaments used in destruction and a significant toll of civillians injured or dying as collateral damage? The impact of much less petroleum being delivered to societies and economies around the world is still unravelling around four weeks after the firsr missiles were fired. Less developed parts of any country first take the hit when a vital resource gets progressively hard to obtain. City folks get disrupted later and when each new day offers no resolution to the cause of the problem. Australia Post has increased charges for business customers regarding delivery fees. The retail prices of petrol continue to spike all across the Asia-Pacific, with the Phillippines already declaring a national energy emergency. There is a reduction in availability of ingredients necessary to make materials for several industries. Airlines have quickly raised airfares and reduced scheduled flights. Fresh produce cannot be shipped on a timely basis to key overseas markets. Waste collection services in suburbs are affected. Fertiliser costs rise to the detriment of farmers. The much reduced inability to obtain liquified natural gas from West Asia adds a double whammy. Each week brings stuttered considerations and implementation by governments of counter measures like fuel rationing, car pooling, limited use of vehicles, release of poorer quality petrol, emergency provisioning and requests to the public to go out less. Food and grocery availability depend on mechanised vehicles being able to operate mostly utilising petrol. The visible lack of electrification across Australia for public, commercial and private transport purposes has now come home to roost. Generation of electricity in Australia however is not just reliant on solar panel generation but uses fossil fuel sources as well. More and more countries have over depended on private vehicle usage, for varying reasons like their geographical size, cities with poor public transport networks and the pyschological freedom valued when using the motor car. The Achilles heel in vehicle usage is the combination of high pricing for fuel and its reduced availability. The reactions observed of government responses seem to indicate a lack of viable and proactive business continuity planning. Governments of nations seem to operate on the optimism model and only act after significant negative events to first occur. It can be incredulous that governments have been using the just in time and minimum stock principles in inventory management of vital national supplies. A viable nation not only requires defensive abilities in war, but equally important are national resource security, key asset management and the ability to bounce back in the shortest time possible. Incredibly there have been Prime Ministers and/or Energy Ministers telling voters in the recent past, that there are no worries about having a few weeks of national fuel reserves on shore, as they can always depend on allies overseas to make up for shortages in case of shortages encountered. In a world wide emergency, it is indeed every man to himself. Energy sources are not just vital to run an economy in peace time, but become so significant in times of war. A society's vulnerability spikes when it only reacts after something has already occured. The importance of refined petroleum is a good example - a country as large as Australia has for a long time chosen to only have two refineries, even if it produces this vital resource in raw form. A small island nation like Singapore strategised to be a large fuel refiner long ago, even if it has no natural resources. How long the war crisis permeates both micro and macro layers of any economy depends on the decisions made by the human players in the outbreak of conflict. We were tied to the biological and mutatative behaviour of organisms during the Covid pandemic - and the world had witnessed the impact on finance, trade, mobility, health in all forms, governance, commercial power play and social attitudes from 2020 to at least 2023. The kick off for inflation to move at a faster rate has begun a few weeks ago. When various parts of the supply chain experience a kink or a delay, rogue players in the free markets can create artificial insuffiencies or quote actual shortages and raise prices more than necessary in the scheme of things. In economies which do not believe in price controls, the ultimate consumer has no other choice but to pay ultimate costs. The subsequent consequence of rising inflation for higher inter bank rates set by a central bank ( and thereby for mortgage and other lending costs) brings further dire pressure on loan borrowers who already do not earn enough to pay more for interest expenditure. In socialist practice, do governments offer tax credits, increased welfare payments, compensation set offs or specific subsidies to mitigate sudden rising costs of living and expenses of small business? With tighter budgets, the public can be reluctant to spend less on discretionary items and thereby contract the multiplier effect on consumption. A further strike on consumer and business confidence can drive recessionary pressures, reduced wages and GDP growth. Like an accelerating car's speed, even if the causative war were to end tonight, the linked impacts would take some time to stop. Who are nevertheless still benefitting behind the cloud of an pessimistic outlook? Does a conflict embed further the immense power already held by the few on Earth? The churning of pricing and value of investment options is utilised for quick profits with deft timing and changing allocations. The price of gold has see sawed in response to political moves, threats to escalate, promises to reverse and differing actions already witnessed in the few weeks since 28 February. Bond yields in the USA have steadily risen. Share prices have plunged collectively on red letter days and quietly recovered on days that followed. Understandably wholesale oil prices show spectacular increases on graphs, although they do drop as well. How the big players buy and sell at the right time is a useful skill of intelligent analysis and daring already seen through previous heightened episodes of stock and asset play. The media, in whatever form, needs events to arouse readership, attention and discussion. In an age of instantenous accessibility and enhanced pack mentality in expression, well funded financiers, politically charged arousers and savvy influencers can have an intense opportunity in communicating their convictions or agenda. The tragic underside of the internet is its misuse to nisinform or disinform. What has not been emphasised is the possibility of general gullibility of the target audience (including myself) - especially to new technology that can make it harder to distinguish the truth and facts from opinions, speculation and manipulated images. Wartime is the garden bed for bringing up fears, confusion and strong opinions in reaction to a deluge of varying qualities and standards of supposed information. Are certain quarters using war, and its impact, to make huge money making opportunities personally ? Buy when share or commodity prices fall drastically, sell when it spikes up again? If a political decision or action can significantly move values and prices, isn't it a better mechanism to utilise than wait for movements of so called free markets. Like during the Covid 19 pandemic, this month can be another opportunity for contemporary societies to reassess their ongoing risks, assumptions and delusions of the prosperity enjoyed so far. How likely is the strength of still possible optimism, that the problems so far experienced will fade and life will go on as before? Is your nation sleep walking and blithely awaiting a next crisis, if it survives this current one? Patchwork and stop gap measures may make our society carry on, but it does not resolve the relevant root causes. A crisis is an opportunity to resolve matters and build more resilience for the long term, and not just surface treat the symptoms. What are Earth and human beings in for this time in 2026? The Word of the Year seems likely to be "Fuel Surcharge". #yongkevthoughts 26.3 26

Living and Investing in Havens

When trouble strikes elsewhere, a city state like Singapore watches. Others also watch Singapore. Singapore gains from being and/ or perceived to be a beacon of relative governance/ financial/ educational/ personal/ health/ economic/ trade safety, compared to her competition. Now her leadership has also to seriously grapple between her Asian cultural roots and Western colonial links, in a geopolitical landscape that seems to heighten tensions and more interaction between the East and West. Singapore's strategic characteristics, her geographical size and her image can be double edged blessings and risks. She attracts attention, she attracts investment, she attracts portable funds always waiting for a place to park (until the next higher return). Singapore can also arouse players which may have designs on her to embed their vested interests. It can be due to her strategic location at the nexus of significant shipping, airline and trading routes. It can be due to her mature, dynamic and relatively more reliable reputation as a financial centre. It can be her government's consistent readiness and planning to overcome most present and future risks. Singapore also is sited centrally in the Indo-Pacific region, the world's fastest growing region. She is ever conscious and alert to rising competitors, whether in the most prominent Bay areas of the USA and China, or in the petroleum rich and ambitious city states of West Asia. Behemoth financial centres like London, Tokyo, Shanghai and Hong Kong have always loomed large historically when Singapore was not so developed. Those four cities incurred extensive damage and loss in the huge wars of the 20th century, but so did Singapore. Lower tax regimes in Singapore, compared to OECD nations, can make her investment attraction and advantage more like tax havens. In fact, Singapore does better in structuring her society than most atypical small city or island tax havens. Key features that top most lure expats to Singapore can be a one stop corporate shop, organised infrastructure, high standard education/ medical facilities and relative personal safety. Any expat living or investing in tax havens can move away from their original home nations - and they do so for lower costs of living, taking advantage of currency exchange rates, enjoying a different lifestyle, jet setting and having a better climate. Such havens structure their society to attract such expats. Dubai has under stated its war risks in a volatile geopolitical region. Singapore is serious in better managing its humid weather conditions. Tax havens in Europe are used to navigate through the historical confrontations and conflicts - and they can be little kingdoms, unassumedly not catching the attention of most critics or opposition. The Carribean isles invite investors to soak in warm weather vacations as well. Dubai has extreme high temperatures but that is mitigated by energy consuming air conditioning ( like in Singapore and Hong Kong). Expats, whether they are media influencers, cashed up retirees or corporate high flyers, often need a variety of offerings in leisure night life activities, contemporary arts, unique architectural surroundings and more. Some tax havens do also stand out in offering vibrant business opportunities, critical networking and excellent internet reliability. The dark side of such vibrant places is the unavoidable requirement to import lower paid migrants willing to undertake the so called menial jobs, which are critical to the running of society but often hidden away from media attention or acknowledgememt by authorities. Hong Kong may not be seen as organised as Singapore, but has benefitted much as a financial centre and trade conduit to the burgeoning hinterland of Greater China. Now more well integrated with an ever prosperous and technologically advanced Motherland, Hong Kong now also competes with dynamic cities within China itself. The Swiss adopted a vital stand of neutrality to differentiate themselves from the often shaky geopolitics in Europe. By so doing, Switzerland instantly offered better stability and reliability to investors and those seeking minimisation of risks. On top of the Swiss cake, the country offered governance through a republic. These are the layers intentionally built under the star feature - financial discretion and management ability. No place is perfect - and what is more significant is how a society and government highlight their strong points and manage risks for their vulnerable ones. #yongkevthoughts

What Really Rules

Underlying the veneer of international affairs, long ago there already is no such thing as rules based order, for the standards of such rules are determined by those who can. Ponder more if you agree the following factors are more relevant, persistent and practised in the conduct of world affairs, politics and human matters. Alliances and Peer Pressure. There is more pressure on governments of various kinds to show support for the articulated actions and thoughts of allies, then dabbling in self intelligence and independent approaches - especially when one ally carries more weight than the others. Some nations may have to reflect if their alliance partner status may be lost once they are no longer useful to the chief ally. Reflect on how the two world wars of the 20th century developed. Cultural Sentiment and the Diaspora Effect. When some nations and societies are formed through shared history, the cultural vibes can over rule other considerations. Generations of humans, even if residing in disparate territories, have been inculcated into the same language, philosophies and ideals from an early age. That over bearing sense of belonging gives a uniqueness which has to be protected and strengthened through the ages, come what may. This can be related to the social mesh of tribal dynamics. Trade Dependency. It can be common sense to know where the food comes from, who brings home the bacon (so to speak) and to not jeopardise your main market who pays the cash. Yet there have been episodes around the world where economies have thrashed those who buy most from them. Apart from food sources, world trade thrives on energy needs, vital minerals, manufacturing components for weapons, health products and telecommunications plus niche items. Economic Prowess and Market Power. If you can pull and leverage on what makes the world tick and grow, there can be a ruthlessness in the exercise of such dominating abilities. Some do so just because they can and all polite talk is thrown out the window. More competition can erode such wrecklessness, but lack of competition is a form of so called free market forces that are ruinous. Independent Abilities. When your society has optimal leadership to manage an economy despite the lack of physical resources, it is a telling sign of how potential can truly become reality. It is also useful as an example of how to rise above challenges, risks and weaknesses. The ability to transform and compete can be nurtured, encouraged and maintained. Underlying rhe success of such growth nations is their ability to recognise and exercise their strategic advantage/ differential play, despite accompanying weaknesses. Historical Animosities. Conflicts that rage on in the hearts of various succeeding generations can lead to more destruction and overtones of emotional anguish. Beliefs can be portrayed in black and white, with no compromise for meeting opinions half way. The persistent human tendencies for scoring an eye for an eye churns negativities into more complicated forms. Human beings like these are obsessed with an attachment to beliefs that can be manipulated by certain individuals and organisations to their private and selfish advantage. Colonial Cords. For a few centuries, most of the non European world was colonised. Reasons for such a rise in widespread colonialism can be an imbalance in the power of technology, living standards, funding and passion for trade on the part of the colonisers. Some societies were already easily down trodden for conquest in the luck of the draw. The effects of past and present colonisation still exist in the influence of language, perception, beliefs, inequity of international relationships and culture. Some previous colonial powers still remain strong in exerting decisions made over world wide entities and matters. Their economic prowess can remain formidable even if the sun of colonisation is supposed to have long ago set below the horizon. Technological Links and Enablers. The quality and quantity of technology employed, whether for war or peace time purposes, is a key differentiator in history. Technology can fast track efficiency, robustness and superiority. Technology enables growth in finances, economy and power held. When the means of technology is employed for less desirable purposes, that is what we should be more aware and cautious of. Food and Energy Security. Human societies have to be realistic - the bottom line is to have sufficient food to nurture human strengths, thinking abilities and physical optimums. Few nations produce more food than they can consume. The same goes for energy requirements to propel transport, electricity and data centres. When you rely on importing what you do not have, you are dependent on risks in supply lines, trade relationships and public security. When a society or country has only a few weeks supply of materials, produce or products indispensable to its survival or viability, good leadership works on mitigating such risks to its independence. Religious Motivations. The drive of religion underlying political actions is most readily observed. Such power is embedded in existing religious based institutions that call on the masses to take action and decisions that glorify higher powers and thereby justify the necessary sacrifices to be made. The Migrant Factor. The Us Versus Them argument hypes up the corral under siege logic, in that inherent problems in a society are alleged to be caused by recent arrivals or perceived outsiders. Instead of realistically resolving the causes of a problem, the blame game in politics can be an easy manipulation of the more vulnerable in the community. Benefits brought by migration are downplayed while racial harmony is ruthlessly broken. Power Families, Funds and Hubs. Old money and new money can join forces discreetly and quietly to be puppet masters in local and international politics. Media, fund movers, secret groupings and choice of government leaders operate in the background with unannounced priorities, agendas and execution. Those at the Top Can Often Do So, especially at the height of their powers, without justifying any regulation, ethics or requirement. Man made precedents can be removed in the guise of emergencies, external threats and sheer exercise of control, especially if the army is behind you - and all protestations of legality are thrown out the window. The Grip of Political Ideologies. Legacies from the 19th and 20th centuries still vibrate in differences of governance systems. Can the original tenets of democratic ideals truly work and be effective with millions of voters, gerrymandering of electorate boundaries, interference in vote counts and the speculation of polls? Communism is painted by liberals as covered with dictatorships. Can communist principles exist with a capitalistic economic framework and mindset? Go figure, observe and make up your own mind. Remoteness in Geographical Locations. Does this offer a layer of protection against the effects of the more violent parts of the World? Advances in technology can make all corners of Earth more accessible. The overpowering chains of alliances can demand isolated places to decide and make a stand or take sides. Information Access and Influence. Control of personal information, commercially useful data and so called smart device daily use analysis are so significant to any party controlling the world. Individually or collectively, the data amassed are not only utilised to determine patterns of present consumption, but become the basis of predictive science, AI learning and behavioural monitoring. Continuing Addictions of the Masses. Power and control by the distinct few are enhanced by giving peanuts to the masses, utilising the opium effect by ensuring addictive stupor on those whom you wish to manipulate and by ensuring constant socio-economic distractions for the majority in any society. Most of the world's economic wealth is held by a decreasing minority of the Earth's population. Even in contemporary times, do reflect on how a typical human being's effort, time and skills are spent on mundane, repetitive and relatively not so worthwhile activities. #yongkevthoughts

Iconic and Festive Cantonese Dishes

The Guangzhou style of culinary travelled with the migration of southern Chinese to South east Asia, Anglo centric nations and parts of Latin America as early as 200 years ago ( if not more). Here is my selection of celebratory Cantonese dishes for any festive occasion. Whole crab claypot with egg noodles combines the best of fresh seafood cooked with garlic, ginger and shallots. Roast goose is an iconic dish in the Teochew heartlands of southern Guangdong Province (south east of China). Stir fried savoury greens must be combined with sufficient Wok Hei or heat to bring out the full taste when served - the dish uses dried shrimp, chilli cuts and bean paste to enhance. Roast pork slices are de riguer present for meals on special occasions in Chinese and Vietnamese culture. They signify cubes of gold to bring in good omens. They also signify prosperity and good fortune. Steamed fish garnished by fresh herbs, ginger slices, cherry tomatoes and other condiments to accompany the freshness of the seafood. Whole fish indicate plenty, abundance and energy. Singapore and Malaysia can have their Hainan chicken rice - but the Cantonese treasure their yellow skinned poached chicken on the bone with a gratifying flavour and bite. An entree of steamed oysters served on the shell. This delicacy uses subtle other ingredients to manage a sensation on the palate and must be served warm. Piping hot noodles must be mixed thoroughly before being served - and must never be cut at the meal table. Braised seafood nestles over a bed of steamed Kai Lan in a traditional celebratory choice. The virtues of vegetables cannot be underestimated in a collection of savoury mushrooms, carrots, brocolli and more. The ubiqutious fried rice remains one of the banquet dishes at southern Chinese weddings, reunions and gatherings. Warmly braised meats and vegetables warm up the appetite when served in claypots - Chinese tradition is cut up ingredients in tiny bitesize which can be easily picked up by chopsticks. Shangdung roast chicken can be found even in Westernised Chinese restaurants outside Asia. Steamed packs of glutinous rice await diners with aromatic slices of the Cantonese sausage ( Lap Cheong) and bites of refined Shitake mushrooms. Sweet and sour welcome with battered meatballs, onions, capsicium and pineapple slices.

The Bunker Mentality

Does your residential locality offer viable air raid shelters? Even with the contemporary array of military weapons used, a bunker or air raid shelter maintains its usefulness, relevance and viability. The strength of concrete utilised, the location of such shelters and practical accessibility to them in the event of an emergency all count as significant. Why do specific cities, societies or nations take the trouble or have the foresight to build them? Is it because they have learnt from the past of the damage incurred in all out confrontations, or is it due to strategic planning and proactive mindsets? Usually places or communities which feel vulnerable can be small city states, with populations that embrace financial vibrancy and growth and with leadership that value their citizens more than most. It is thereby surprising that dynamic Dubai has no air raid shelters. Dubai lies at the crossroads of vital trade, shipping and airline routes. In contrast, Singapore integrated a bunker room early on with the layout of its social housing. In regions that physically seem to be distant from the usual hubs of war in history, one may assume that there can be no sense in building bunkers. This logic is smashed by the presence of bunkers in Hobart and Brisbane, on the eastern coasts of Australia - although they were built related to the 20th century world wars, I understand they are not truly maintained for 21st century politics. Bunkers are also a favourite tool to hide from an ugly outside world, the stuff of scifi movies and novels. They hold a peculiar fascination for the human pysche. There are websites that provide guidance on what to stock in such bunkers. Northern Europe has serious bunker interests in communities that deeply feel a need to protect them regarding incursions from nearby nations. Bunkers need to consider impacts of climate, ventilation, energy and supply requirements. Above all there is a necessary layer of secrecy and privacy. Most of all is the concern on whether the bunkers can be destroyed easily, in these days of deployment of missiles and drones. Are bunkers essentially a temporary tool of survival? Is the public drilled and trained in how to use them? Do bunkers need more than concrete to be strong? Can digital technology enhance or reduce the viability of a bunker's usefulness? #yongkevthoughts