Geopolitics

 A  Reminder......

The risks of war accumulate,
as deceit, tempers and quarrels grow.
Moderation and tolerance are hard pressed to reduce the heat,
as thinking and mindsets of controlling politicians get to an all time low.

So am I an ordinary citizen supposed to go with the flow,
even if I abhor destructive creep.
If not enough of us do not stand up to say No,
we are at the mercy of those who will make us weep.

#yongkevthoughts

Coastal Vulnerability

 Which coast of the continental island of Australia is most vulnerable?

It all depends what the Canberra government places its emphasis in the risk matrix.  Is vulnerability translated in terms of population over run, biosecurity invasion, foreign ownership, trading shifts, geopolitical exposure or wartime attacks?

The geographical location of Australia initially denotes remoteness, long distances and a colony-like existence between the Indian and Pacific Oceans.   Unfettered skies offer striking oppprtunities to watch the night maps overhead, conduct nuclear weapon experiments and execution of joint nation military excercises.
Populations cling mainly to the Aussie coast in pockets of suburbia, leaving Indigenous Country mainly seemingly empty but full of mineral resources.

The capital of the Commonwealth of Australia is conveniently shucked like a oyster in the south east, between skiing slopes, agricultural farms, surfing beaches and her economic hubs.  Is the rest of the land open to take over, without much impact for the nation?  Famously during the age of conquest drive from the Japanese Imperial Army in the mid 20th century, the sitting Australian Prime Minister kept secret from the public about Canberra, in the worst of scenario, willing to not defend her territory above an imaginary geographical line above the border between Queensland and New South Wales. This "Brisbane Line" roughly synchronises with the Tropic of Capricorn.

In World War 2, most of the Aussie troops were deployed overseas for the needs of Mother Britain.  In the future, will history repeat for Canberra, utilising most of its offensive and defensive war resources in supporting USA geopolitical wants?  With a population of only around 27 million in 2024, non citizens included in the count, can Canberra have sufficient human power to first take care of Australia's independent strategic interests?

Australian coasts are only a passage for unwelcome intruders on the way to the riches within.

The extensive coast facing the Southern Ocean, say from Tasmania to Albany in WA, historically has been the source of whaling legends, endless desert driving, rich farming lands and ports of refuge (whether for Europeans fleeing religious persecution or 1940s American GIs enjoying a respite of R and R in Melbourne).  In the 21st century, perhaps this is the least vulnerable of Aussie coasts in times of war.

Going clockwise around Australia to Perth, we have the Indian Ocean Highway if we then drive north to Exmouth and onwards to the extensive mining resources in Western Australia ( just below the Nusantara isles like Java and Bali).

Although there is a key naval base near Perth ( HMAS Stirling),the western coast remains primarily exposed to invaders of any kind.  Detection on a timely basis as such is of very low probability.  Any mass scale invasion by foreigners is lust for control of the huge trove of natural resources in the state of Western Australia.

The Northern Territory already increasingly hosts foreign troops, battle arsenal and war prep exercises.
It can be compared to what happened to South Korea, Okinawa and the Phillippines after WW2.

Perhaps Darwin is the star attraction in Australian defence.  It is a built up entry and exit point closest to South East Asia.  South of the city has become a focus for militaries of aligned nations to be a staging point handling perceived or actual threats ( depending on your point of view) to Australia or the allied nations themselves.  The vastness and relative emptiness of the NT are perfect as bases for monitoring the skies for spying on other countries or conducting battles in the stratosphere.

From a major military hub in Townsville to the NSW South Coast ( HMAS  Albatross), the eastern side of Australia has most of the infrastructure, power grids, residential housing, telecommunications and economic veins of the country.    Invasion of such a coast would seriously imply management of masses of people, control of trade and holding hostage of talent and skills.  It can bring a nation to her knees, but logically what a price to pay for such a scenario.

Technology wise and in terms of infrastructure, the eastern seaboard of Australia remains backward, with no high speed train networks, relatively few start ups and scattered centres of biotech.  So what is the attraction for invading such a coast?

To be realistic, Australia is historically and geographically mainly far removed from any action in the Northern Hemisphere.   (Critics point to Pearl Harbour attacks in December 1941to demolish any sense of such security for the USA due to geographical distance).

It has no land borders to contend with.  The South Pacific to its east offers a friendly relative in New Zealand and a host of Polynesian and Melanesian isles.
Canberra always had this opportunity to chart her own destiny but has never done sufficiently in this respect.

Amazingly, Canberra is pretty lax in building up her relationships with South east Asia, particularly Indonesia, with the latter's span of territory from Sumatra to Irian Jaya, almost shaped like an Akruba hat sited north of Australia.

Australia does not need to control any choke points of shipping trade like the major canals of the world. 
It has enough coastal land to accomodate a larger population which can be useful in contributing to a better defensive strategy.

Canberra can think outside the square to adopt a neutrality status like Switzerland  in world affairs.
Australia can better offer itself as a positive beacon for an ever uncertain world, instead of, in the worst circumstances, of being a foot soldier in the military campaigns and strategies waged by
foreigners.


#yongkevthoughts

The Delusions of Yesteryears

 

So I am told by the elderly, that volunteering to enlist for World War 2 in the mid 20th century was seen as obligatory by most to do their duty to nation and society - but in those times it was also an exciting adventure like opportunity to see the World.  Millennials, Gen Z and those following behind the Baby Boomers have had peacetime opportunity to explore overseas without the accompanying dangers of battle.

We have been given authority like advice on the health risks of eating eggs, desired blood pressure points and the benefits of health supplements.  Dissenting voices now appear in cyberspace to counter or modify such advice.  Every one has an individual uniqueness health wise - and to be subject to population averages can be missing the mark.

Many of us must have reflected on the serious loyalty and passion of sitting down to watch and hear the news telecast.   As the internet liberated the expression of and accessibility to information, it has become so clear and evident of how such news content has been cherry picked and emphasised according to the powers of the day (financial, geopolitical and more).  Now the equivalant Town Hall megaphone pundits are doing it by clicks, social media and more.

Nothing is forever.  The impermanence of Things pervades more than ever, despite the tech advance, the addictive distractions and new ideas.   Strive and enjoy the Moment.  A promise can be fulfilled and yet disintegrate due to the consistency of Change.   Excessive attachments interfere with true happiness.  Flora bloom, rot and regenerate.  Politicians come and go, together with whatever inspiration, lies and mediocrities.  The Cloud demands your money payments after you get comfy storing your data having access to it from any device.  Pets die.  And yet we have to carry on.

When young, our brains and inner soul absorb the wonder and fascination of what we are being fed in all respects.   Only later do we realise the half truths of the geopolitical game.   That Prime Minister we honoured in our childhood turns out to be a scroundel.   The public or commercial institution we use has mismanaged our data.  Customers long loyal to a specific entity get rewarded by being screwed with higher charges and bad service.

The romanticisation from movies, travel brochures and legends have hidden realities.   Exotic locales can mean suppression of Indigenous peoples.   History is always recorded ignoring the contributions from humans and human structures not useful to the World as it is According to Those In Power.

When we have been brain washed through the years, essentially we can still hang on to myths, tampered propanganda and blurry impressions of the past.

Were historical leaders that good?

Where we witness a mass of people wailing at state funerals, do we remember the dark side and acts of the deceased indivudual when he or she was in power?  Human beings are easily swept over by overwhelming public emotion.  To realise the truth, even if not downtrodden, is a liberating experience.

The distractions of the past also point a way to better manage the continuing delusions of the present.
If you look close enough, history does repeat.   There are similar characteristics in the personality and pyschological make up of humans and entities out to delude us all the way to the future.

On the bright side, delusions experienced are only a necessary stage on your journey to realisation and awakening.


#yongkevthoughts

Paradise Retained?

 This possibly remaining vestige of colonialism is hardly brought up by the mainstream media.

The recent riots in Noumea, blamed on the Melanesian Kanak independence movement, is part of a brewing dissatisfaction evident in New Caledonia in as many years.

The bright side - Even if the French territories in the South Pacific are so far away from Europe, their residents of whatever background amazingly are given full rights to vote in French  elections - something the British, Germans, Portuguese and Dutch never did in Africa or Asia.

Noumea is pretty scenic and is part of the romanticised chain of still French controlled part of South Pacific locations that include Tahiti and Bora Bora.

It is nearer for Aussies from the east coast to fly to New Caledonia than to fly to Singapore or Bangkok.

There is a direct flight from Changi Singapore to
Noumea on AirCalin.

The Down side - it can be very expensive to maintain political, military and supply logistic control  over a few isles on the other side of the world.

Still Paris can quickly send a thousand troops to New Caledonia quickly following the recent extensive riots in May this

year in Noumea.

Tiny New Caledonia is the world's fourth largest producer of Nickel,  after Indonesia, Phillippines and Russia.  Almost a quarter of people employed in New Caledonia work in the nickel production sector.

South east and East Asians migrated to New Caledonia in the past for this nickel mining rush.

There can be issues with environmental impact from nickel mining.

When The War Came To My Reality

 

When The War Came to my Reality.

Aussies have long had this perception of battles taking place far away, fighting for freedom of peoples in other lands.

Even if our continental island seems distant from the big troubles across the Northern Hemisphere, what happens when Australia takes its dutiful turn to host battles to be fought on behalf of its allies?

Let us be all prepared for the physical, social and personal landscape suffered as collateral damage. 

Politicians of different shades can still keep arguing with each other, but the reality for the rest of us at ground level must make us prepare ourselves for harrowing eventualities.

Many things on our media, distracting us with irrelevant matters for so many years, will not matter anymore.

Reality shows will be replaced by reality.   The pandemic will be pushed aside ( if it already has been) by the impact of intense failure of our logistics, energy supply, communications, food and economic grids.  A lack of national unity and leadership can amplify the negative fallout.   A lack of independent purpose and stance will make foreigners increase manipulation of our societal and collective spirit.

Military fight outs can damage our land and natural resources in ways more extensive than the charge of the Light Brigade.  Who, why and what are we fighting for?    Those who urge us Australians to sacrifice and suffer are most likely sitting in the comfort of their leather cushioned offices really far far away.  Oh does not that sound so familiar?

Food shortages in wartime will be more frightening than that of toilet paper in 2020.    Fuel shortages will paralyse more than just jaunts to the supermarkets and beaches.   Innocent individuals can be banished to harsh climate corners of our vast land.   Ports and facilities will be targeted, towns in wrong places sacrificed and the sense of being stunned and conquered can add to our national pysche.

The outreach of intercontinental weapons is not limited to ballistic missiles, but are more deadly using cyberspace, artificial intelligence and sensory devices.   Australia can be held as hostage in the political tapestry of technologically advanced conflicts.   Her dependencies in critical requirements on overseas supply can undo her bargaining counter strengths.   Her relatively smaller population can be no match for her opponents.   Will the Australian government and society be punished for their perceived and actual taking of sides?  Will our military arnaments be such a pittance in capability when we need to rely on them?

Will the outcome of conflict fought out on Aussie soil be not up to us, but more on the decisions, motives and actions of outsiders?

The outcomes of actual conflict in northern Australia can divide the territory of the Lucky Country.  Years of hosting foreign powers can come home to roost in coming to more than hairs with powerful  militaries which see such bases as interfering with their strategic safety and vital interests.  Australia can stage landlocked destruction like a pawn in geopolitical chess.

Will another country save us?
Succesive Australian governments
have opted to serve more of the requirements of powerful so called Big Brothers, rather than gradually assert its own independent stand. Being overly loyal to outsiders does not guarantee a return of favour in an increasingly complex and evolving world of competitive power.

So if and when the war comes to our door step, be truly prepared.  No matter what......

#yongkevthoughts

The G7 today

The G7 looks like an alumni of the victors from the two devastating world wars of the 20th century. Definitely not, as historical enemy states from that era, Japan and Germany, are sitting on the table as part of the seven core members. North America and Europe contribute most of this so called select group of seven nations. Past allies like Russia and China from those world wars are now viewed by this mostly Western Alliance as hostile. Asia-Pacific is represented only by Japan. Is the G7 a group of the current and growing powerhouse economies? Banish that idea - Brazil, India, Indonesia and China are not in this group of seven. Smaller economies like Australia and South Africa are asked to attend on the side lines. Someone I know pointed out to me that the G7 nations, except for Canada, all have USA military bases on their soil. Some quarters view the G7 as a core military alliance in a future world war scenario for the 21st century. Instead of seizing an opportunity to further cooperate for peaceful global development, this interpretation emphasises the significance and powerful influence of weapons producers and traders in our politically unstable world. Does the G7 represent one side of a potential clash of civilisations? Or is it a manifestation of one side of an evolving trade war? Some Asians I know view the G7 as an alliance of Western powers, trying to ensure that its long held dominance in geopolitics is not whittled away. The problem with this opinion is why Japan is part of and Russia is not part of the G7. Yet, Africans, Asians apart from Japan, Latin Americans, Indigenous nations and Middle Easterners are notably not members of the G7. So it is definitely an exclusive club. More likely the G7 is an alumni of past and still current dominant powers, which increasingly have to deal with the realities, on various growing fronts, of a quick changing contemporary world. #yongkevthoughts

Risk and Opportunity 2021

 

A Baker's Dozen of non-Covid  Significant Risk and Opportunity Themes We Face in 2021 - in no particular order.

1.    The Pace of Healing of Divisiveness and Polarisation in the USA.

2.     The low interest rate environment impacting on macroeconomic policy, fiscal management, investment options and personal financing.

3.    Life after Brexit in Britain.

4.    How China, Russia, America, Japan and Europe make their next moves on the chess board.

5.    Trying to rebounce the dynamics of international travel.

6.     Rising use of AI and the evolving transformation of consumer experience.

7.     Oligopolistic business  ownership in technology, health, social media, energy, transport, resource extraction and agricultural sectors.

8.     Compromised and hidden relationships in managing a nation's key assets and strategic parameters.

9.      Changes in the evolving nature of financial currency, market value chains, banking and trading mechanisms.

10.   Continued transformation of mindsets and practice in the political spectrum, including nationalism, modification of democratic practices, heartlander alienation and promotion of cultural uniqueness.

11.   Rising  concerns about intrusions into personal privacy and data utilised for dubious purposes, coupled with more access to overloads of misleading information and news.

12.    The role of world dependence on petroleum in the complex geopolitical stage of the Middle East.

#yongkevthoughts