Critical Passages and Chokepoints

The world's critical waterway chokepoints affecting trade, supplies, shipping and tourism have always been relevant for a long time now. The UK and Europe has taken strategic and stakeholder interests in Suez - while the USA even took control of the land strips beside the Panama Canal. In the 18th and 19th centuries, the Dutch, Portuguese and British fought for the Straits of Malacca. Singapore sits at the southern end of the Malacca Straits, a very important junction between the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. The Black Sea is vital to Russia, Ukraine and the surrounding landlocked states, thereby making the Bosporus Straits near Istanbul a vital opening to the Sea of Marmara. What about other significant water passages that are of value, historical concern and contemporary risk? The Sea of Japan between the southern Japanese island of Kyushu and the Korean Peninsular. The Mongols in the 13th century CE launched ships to attempt conquering the Japanese isles, but were rebuffed by typhoons in 1274 and 1281, that are now fondly referred to as the Kamikaze ( Divine Winds). The Straits of Gilbratar, narrow and small as it may be, is the only gateway between the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. The British still maintain a tiny colonial foothold in Gilbratar, sandwiched between Spain and Morocco. Command of a narrow but strategic waterway pays off not only in military advantages, but also historically in revenue collection, geopolitical bargaining and in trading. The Torres Strait lies between Papua New Guinea and Cape York Peninsular in northern Queensland. It forms the shortest stretch of ocean between Asia and Australia. It was a channel of cultural exchange, trade and biological influences long before British settlement and the formation of modern Australia. The Baltic Sea, particularly the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Bothmia, are of top security and national importance to Russia and its neighbours of Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia , Finland, Poland and Sweden. Underwater cables carrying data and communications, submarine use and a much needed relatively fair weather water passageway out of landlocked territories - all these offer benefits and stakeholder advantages. The Taiwan Straits is near the economically vibrant Bay area of southern China and her key cities of Shenzhen, Xiamen, Hong Kong and Macao. Taiwan was named as Formosa (the Beautiful Island) by the Portuguese maritime explorers. Apart from the Taiwan Indigenous ( who are related to the Polynesians), Taiwan had been populated from the 17th century onwards, by migrants ( Hakkas and Hoklos) from the southern Chinese provinces of Fujian and Guangdong, before being taken over by Japan when the island nation won the Sino-Japanese War in 1895 against Qing Dynasty China. After the Japanese Imperialists surrendered in 1945 in the closure of the Second World War in the Pacific, Taiwan was returned to a China fighting a civil war. The Nationalists in China fled to Taiwan when they lost political control of the mainland to the Communists in 1949. In the almost 80 years since, Taiwan has been governed in varying ways different from mainland China. The Johore Straits separate the island republic of Singapore from the peninsular of the Federation of Malaysia. There are two causeways, fully utilised to the core every day with goods, produce and people. The Japanese Imperial army crossed over in early 1942 from the north ( Malayan peninsular) to take over British colonial Singapore in a few weeks. The Johore Straits divides two separate nations which were once together in the same Federation, but now differ in several key features. A sizeable number of people reside on the Johore side of the Straits but work in Singapore. Halong Bay lies south of Guang Xi Province of China, which borders northern Vietnam. That area of water also has the tropical Chinese island of Hainan nearby. It has witnessed the intense bombings over Hanoi and Haiphong during the worst years of the American War in Vietnam. Halong Bay has scenic limestone outcrops dotted over water. The St. Lawrence Seaway is the economic pipeline for eastern Canada, where most of her national population resides - and also for the north eastern United States. The so called seaway is a huge system of canals, rivers and locks that facilitate shipping, supplies, people movement and societal linkages. From inland provinces and small townships, it connects them to the northern Atlantic and serves the needs of two nations. Both national capitals of the USA and Canada are geographically near this never to be under estimated feature. Between Communist Cuba and Florida ( most south easterly state of the USA) is a stretch of water that does not take long to traverse. Known as the Straits of Florida, it connects the Gulf of Mexico with the Atlantic Ocean. Refugees are familiar with its waters. Pirates roamed to plunder and seize two and three centuries ago. It can be a geopolitical beach head just north of the Caribbean, which itself has a variety of tax havens, economically challenged societies and vacation spots. California has an economic and financial vitality that exceeds many of the world's independent nations. It has a long Pacific Ocean coast, viable diverse migrant demographics and apart from Hawaii, is the setting for key military installations for the West Coast of the USA. The Bering Straits separate mainlands of both Russia and the USA ( Alaska). It is said human beings walked over landbridges that existed long ago before the sea waters of the Straits rose up. The Straits represent a geographical divide between two large nations with stark comparisons in governance, philosophy and culture. The English Channel is what keeps the European continent distinct from the British Isles. Nazi bombers, Saxon invaders, Roman Empire legions and contemporay migrants from outside Europe have all crossed this narrow geographical feature. The North Sea, stormy as it mostly is, is a buffer between Scotland, Iceland and Scandinavia. Petroleum rich, it is also a passage to Greenland and the Arctic. Occupying north western Europe, it had witnessed Viking sailing mastery of the waters. The Adriatic Sea was a strategic basin for the city state of Venice in the Renaissance. Evidence of Roman Empire settlements, architecture and heritage are accessible, for example, along the Croatian coasts. The Ottomans expanded along this part of mainland Europe, though they did not take Italy except for Sicily. The Adriatic remains significant today as a rough boundary between Catholic and Orthodox Christian Europe, or between Latin and Slav cultural regions. #yongkevthoughts

Carving Up or Preservation of Territory

 Contemporary history continues the pattern of changing of boundaries and territories as the fortunes, power and fate of empires, states and societies vary through the course of time.

While some political states have largely maintained their lands, others have been afflicted with division, separation and takeover.

Nations are not created just because we share the same culture, religion or ethnic ties. States can be seen to hold diversity - and that can be both a strength and vulnerability.

Nations have been created or broken up for political convenience, as a result of violent conflict or subject to a powerful leadership past or present.

Europe is often cited as having the affliction of constant changing boundaries, small or large lands affected. Parts of Germany and France have switched to one or the other. The break up of the Austrian Hungarian Empire resulted in a platter of several kingdoms.  Scandinavia was once dominated by Sweden.  Italy was only formed in the late 19th century.   The end of the Soviet Union in 1989 mushroomed independent countries from Central Asia to the Baltic States.

Africa today retains the colonial map of the 20th century, even if independent states are in power today, instead of the carve up amongst the colonists from Italy, France, Portugal, Belgium, Germany and Britain.

Across Asia, several nations echo broken parts of what once was one.  India and Pakistan were separated based on religion when the British gave independence to the subcontinent.  The Korean peninsular underwent through a dramatic war between what was touted to be between communism and capitalism. Vietnam was broken in two when the French left in the 1950s, suffered a long bitter and violent conflict during the American War and finally was reunited under a nationalistic Communist regime.

In the Western Hemisphere, Mexican land was purchased by the burgeoning United States in the latter's expansionist phase going westwards in the 19th century.   Alaska was also bought from the Russian Empire in the late 19th century.

The United States controlled Panama after they built the canal that connected both Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. This is an example of territorial  takeover in bits strategic to trade and geopolitics.

The 1895 defeat by the Japanese of a weak China saw the start of Taiwan under Japanese rule, until the break up of the Imperial Japanese forces in August 1945.

When the original territory of nations are divided, there are significant implications for the people caught on either side of the separation. Think of Berlin during the Cold War between the USA and the Soviet Union.  Reflect of how Koreans have been split up since the ceasefire from so many years ago.

#yongkevthoughts

Universities Today

 There are 166 universities in the United Kingdom -  currently there are 3 Vice Chancellors in a British university with a South Asian background.

1.  Leceister Uni  - Nishan Canagarajah.

2.  Kings College London - Shitij Kapur.

3.  Canterbury Christ Church University  - Rama Thirunamachandran

The only VC in Britain with an East Asian background is Max Lu of the University of Surrey, who has recently been appointed by the University of Wollongong NSW in Australia as its new VC.

There are 43 universities in Australia.  No one with a South Indian background has been appointed a VC in this Antipodes nation.

No non ethnic Malays have served as VC of any university in Malaysia.

No non ethnic Chinese currently serve as a University VC in Singapore.

There are eight universities in New Zealand with no VCs of Asian origin.
Damon Salesa of Samoan origin is the current VC of the Auckland University of Technology.

In Canada, Mohamed Lachemi serves as VC of the Toronto Metropolitan Univsrsity.
Deep Saini is VC of McGill University and is of Punjabi origin.  There are around 100 universities across Canada.

Across the Australian university sector, there is an obvious under representation of females as Vice-Chancellors.

Are VC roles supposed to reflect the mores and uniqueness of each society?
Or are they increasingly chosen for abilities in corporate management, strategic leadership and financial
prowess, as higher educational instutitions become more of competitive
behemoths obsessed with research rankings, easy student revenues and corporate growth?

Universities do not pay tax and are inherently community entities to start with, originally meant to serve the ideals of education, inspiring thinking, academic growth and embedding benefits from society ideals.   They have now grown to be jaggernauts which can prioritise high level commercialisation over those of teaching, learning and student experience.

Universities are not accountable to shareholders and yet now operate like commercial entities.   The equivalent of a corporate Board can be in University Councils, whose members should be a broad based demographic but increasingly stacked with political aspirations and corporatised vibes.

There are universities burdened and yet enriched with historical traditions.   There are universities which carry the torch of enlightenment and innovativeness in ages of oppression, extremism and backwardness.   Universities are best when they develop the minds and behaviours of progress and reform for the larger society outside their campuses.
Our contemporary age has never seen so many numbers attending university.

Yet universities can be held captive by the overwhelming control of geopolitics.   Donations for such institutions are significantly important, whether in knowledge, finance or human effort.   Universities do not stand alone well by themselves, but are best to serve when they have a collective will and purpose to advance the course of continuing human civilisation.

#yongkevthoughts

The Southern Hemisphere

 Living in the Antipodes has its quirks and pecularities.

Most of the action is dominated by the Northern Hemisphere.  South of the Equator seems to imply something less, suggestive of secondary.   We have lesser populations, especially across the Indian and Pacific Oceans.   Even our land masses are perceived to have just mountains and forests like in the Andes and in parts of Africa.  The mystery loved by adventurers hangs around thick and alluring in South America and Africa.   Two of the most risky capes to sail past in the age of colonialism were the Cape of Good Hope and the Tierra de Fuego.

Geopolitics, technology advances,
finance, trade, arnaments and medical fields can be dominated by the big players in the European Union, Russia, China and the United States.  All north of the Equator.  

The critical air links and shipping routes all compete more in the Mediterranean, Red Sea, Malacca Straits, South China Sea, Panama Canal, the Carribean, the Baltic and the North Atlantic.   The vastness and large distances of the South Pacific between Chile and New Zealand already prove to be barriers.   And I dare not reflect the  challenges in the wide ocean between Perth and Durban - I can only think of the secret USA military base at Diego Garcia.

South America in the past 100 years gives me the perception and impression of being a hotbed of revolution, dictatorship and violent change of ruling governments. I must not generalise, for each society and its history do have circumstances and conditions that create their own geopolitical path.

South Africa was strongly condemned by the United Nations as an apartheid state before the arrival of Mandela.   Australia has a whites first policy before it was dismantled by Gough Whitlam. 

The vast waters in the Southern Hemisphere  do provide so much for sea creatures, weather patterns and romanticised cruise travel.   On the negative side, the South Pacific attracted French government nuclear testing - as did the Australian mainland, by British and USA interests.

Time differences are not caused by being in the south or north.  These human measurement systems agreed internationally to bring order to the human world do mean that while London is starting a new day, Sydney is going to bed.  Events in the USA happen a day before New Zealand regarding calendar date.   However, Cape Town is the same time zone as Berlin - and Rio is only an hour ahead of New York.

Air routes tend to be more over oceans, rather than land, when you venture below the Equator.   There are more islands as you cross over the Indonesian Archipelago.  There is more emptiness seemingly as you fly over the oceans.   On the other hand, one can be captivated by the dry deserts over Australia, the lush forests or grasslands of Africa and the high peaks of the Andes.

Institutions of higher education below the Equator are generally ranked below the top universities sited above that geographical line.

The Indigenous of Southern lands and waters have had tumultous historical times since the arrival of the sailing ships from Europe.   Almost the whole non- European world was colonised in rapid succession from the 16th to 20th centuries ( exceptions were Japan, huge parts of inland China, Thailand and Ethopia).  The Australian continental island with around 200 Aboriginal nations was declared "terra nullius" by the first British stepping foot at Sydney Cove.

The Maoris in Aotearoa fought back against the colonists in a most vehement manner.   Natives across southern Africa were challenged by the technical superiority, agricultural transformations and better weaponry of the European arrivals.  The allure of gold, a falling Inca Empire and the resources in South America spurred on the Spanish conquerors.

The lands of the Southern Hemisphere all had gold mining rushes, echoing the richness of its topography which can still provide hidden resources.  European dictated agricultural practices were imposed in Australia to the disregard of native traditions.

People from Europe brought infections and diseases to the Southern Hemisphere in the period of colonisation.  

Flora and fauna come foremost to mind in the Southern Hemisphere. A striking example is the variety as studied by Joseph Banks as he sailed on the Cook voyages.

The ways of best managing the environment  in the Antipodes were challenged by the mindset of the colonisers to bring and implement their previous template and practices to their new world.  Australia, New Zealand and Argentina were strongly viewed to serve aa food growing resources.  Foreign plants and animals were introduced with short sighted reasons

The Koala population is strongly decimated in Nww South Wales.  

Quietness, especially at night, can bring forth a rather special charm when one is in the country areas outside cities and towns across the Southern Hemisphere.  I reckon this can be experienced as well in the depths of the Eurasian continent, the Canadian Tundra and in the forests of Europe.

So far, the horror of war conflict, civillian collateral damage and destructive arnaments has not been as much as in the Northern Hemisphere - bar around the South Pacific in the 1940s, where the USA navy gained stature in Australian eyes.  New Guinea was also a scene of intense physically close fighting between the troops of the Japanese Imperial Army and those of the Allies.  South America was spared much of the horrors of the two World Wars in the 20th century - but then became the refuge of Nazi escapees from war torn Europe.

Clearer skies at night are a delight and privilege in the Southern Hemisphere.
Due to less population and fewer of bright cities, it is easier to see a passing comet or let our eyes better appreciate the millions of sparkling stars of the Universe.
The atmosphere can be more refreshingly felt due to less pollution and more natural winds.

When societal disruption broke out in the Northern Hemisphere, due to war, discrimination and displacements of people, South America, Australia and New Zealand became places of refuge and attraction to start a life all over again.
Such migrants brought their unique cultures, philosophies, culinary and systems to their newly adopted countries.

Australia seems to still be a land where her migrants of various religions and background come from over 200 separate foreign nations.  Her Indigenous are also the world's oldest continuing civilisation.

#yongkevthoughts

Singapore Faces the Usa Tariffs

 Singapore finds itself so vulnerable with the April 2025  Trumpian tariff moves.

Singapore is a society that even has to import basic things like food.  The nation has prospered as a hub of trading, a broker of exchange, a strategic sea, air and technology port and churner of business.

With high tariffs, kicked off by Trump as only a starter of what he really wants, in this current upset in international relations, countries are varying in approaches and reactions to current Usa government moves.  Some retaliate, others take it on the chin, many wake up from this jolt to the assumed benefits from the  use of comparative advantage, niche specialisation  and freer trade of the recent past.

The current shock felt by most economies also is the result from perhaps over relying on the Usa to continue buying from them.  The Usa has long ago given up its own capability to manufacture many things - although it still holds an advantage in making pharmaceuticals, IT related retail products, commercial aircraft, military arnaments  and agricultural produce -  items that Singapore precisely require.

Singapore's pillars of growth, until the cloud of current uncertainty clears, lie exposed if human civilisation  sinks into convulated trade wars.

If nations outside the Usa take this opportunity to increase trading links amongst themselves, Trump can find himself increasingly isolated.   The reality is that the world has generally put its risks and growth parameters overly on the Usa - and the quake has arrived.

I have to remind myself that the Usa economy also requires things from other nations - they are not self sufficent.  The Usa overspends in retail consumption and consistently is in debt, not only in government operations, but also because other national governments and non  Usa imvestors are willng to finance that debt.

What does the Usa need from.Singapore? 

Maybe more in non trading matters - a military base or partner,  a supporter of sea routes that the  Usa utilises for various reasons,  a supplier of high tech components?

#yongkevthoughts

Geopolitics

 A  Reminder......

The risks of war accumulate,
as deceit, tempers and quarrels grow.
Moderation and tolerance are hard pressed to reduce the heat,
as thinking and mindsets of controlling politicians get to an all time low.

So am I an ordinary citizen supposed to go with the flow,
even if I abhor destructive creep.
If not enough of us do not stand up to say No,
we are at the mercy of those who will make us weep.

#yongkevthoughts

Coastal Vulnerability

 Which coast of the continental island of Australia is most vulnerable?

It all depends what the Canberra government places its emphasis in the risk matrix.  Is vulnerability translated in terms of population over run, biosecurity invasion, foreign ownership, trading shifts, geopolitical exposure or wartime attacks?

The geographical location of Australia initially denotes remoteness, long distances and a colony-like existence between the Indian and Pacific Oceans.   Unfettered skies offer striking oppprtunities to watch the night maps overhead, conduct nuclear weapon experiments and execution of joint nation military excercises.
Populations cling mainly to the Aussie coast in pockets of suburbia, leaving Indigenous Country mainly seemingly empty but full of mineral resources.

The capital of the Commonwealth of Australia is conveniently shucked like a oyster in the south east, between skiing slopes, agricultural farms, surfing beaches and her economic hubs.  Is the rest of the land open to take over, without much impact for the nation?  Famously during the age of conquest drive from the Japanese Imperial Army in the mid 20th century, the sitting Australian Prime Minister kept secret from the public about Canberra, in the worst of scenario, willing to not defend her territory above an imaginary geographical line above the border between Queensland and New South Wales. This "Brisbane Line" roughly synchronises with the Tropic of Capricorn.

In World War 2, most of the Aussie troops were deployed overseas for the needs of Mother Britain.  In the future, will history repeat for Canberra, utilising most of its offensive and defensive war resources in supporting USA geopolitical wants?  With a population of only around 27 million in 2024, non citizens included in the count, can Canberra have sufficient human power to first take care of Australia's independent strategic interests?

Australian coasts are only a passage for unwelcome intruders on the way to the riches within.

The extensive coast facing the Southern Ocean, say from Tasmania to Albany in WA, historically has been the source of whaling legends, endless desert driving, rich farming lands and ports of refuge (whether for Europeans fleeing religious persecution or 1940s American GIs enjoying a respite of R and R in Melbourne).  In the 21st century, perhaps this is the least vulnerable of Aussie coasts in times of war.

Going clockwise around Australia to Perth, we have the Indian Ocean Highway if we then drive north to Exmouth and onwards to the extensive mining resources in Western Australia ( just below the Nusantara isles like Java and Bali).

Although there is a key naval base near Perth ( HMAS Stirling),the western coast remains primarily exposed to invaders of any kind.  Detection on a timely basis as such is of very low probability.  Any mass scale invasion by foreigners is lust for control of the huge trove of natural resources in the state of Western Australia.

The Northern Territory already increasingly hosts foreign troops, battle arsenal and war prep exercises.
It can be compared to what happened to South Korea, Okinawa and the Phillippines after WW2.

Perhaps Darwin is the star attraction in Australian defence.  It is a built up entry and exit point closest to South East Asia.  South of the city has become a focus for militaries of aligned nations to be a staging point handling perceived or actual threats ( depending on your point of view) to Australia or the allied nations themselves.  The vastness and relative emptiness of the NT are perfect as bases for monitoring the skies for spying on other countries or conducting battles in the stratosphere.

From a major military hub in Townsville to the NSW South Coast ( HMAS  Albatross), the eastern side of Australia has most of the infrastructure, power grids, residential housing, telecommunications and economic veins of the country.    Invasion of such a coast would seriously imply management of masses of people, control of trade and holding hostage of talent and skills.  It can bring a nation to her knees, but logically what a price to pay for such a scenario.

Technology wise and in terms of infrastructure, the eastern seaboard of Australia remains backward, with no high speed train networks, relatively few start ups and scattered centres of biotech.  So what is the attraction for invading such a coast?

To be realistic, Australia is historically and geographically mainly far removed from any action in the Northern Hemisphere.   (Critics point to Pearl Harbour attacks in December 1941to demolish any sense of such security for the USA due to geographical distance).

It has no land borders to contend with.  The South Pacific to its east offers a friendly relative in New Zealand and a host of Polynesian and Melanesian isles.
Canberra always had this opportunity to chart her own destiny but has never done sufficiently in this respect.

Amazingly, Canberra is pretty lax in building up her relationships with South east Asia, particularly Indonesia, with the latter's span of territory from Sumatra to Irian Jaya, almost shaped like an Akruba hat sited north of Australia.

Australia does not need to control any choke points of shipping trade like the major canals of the world. 
It has enough coastal land to accomodate a larger population which can be useful in contributing to a better defensive strategy.

Canberra can think outside the square to adopt a neutrality status like Switzerland  in world affairs.
Australia can better offer itself as a positive beacon for an ever uncertain world, instead of, in the worst circumstances, of being a foot soldier in the military campaigns and strategies waged by
foreigners.


#yongkevthoughts

The Delusions of Yesteryears

 

So I am told by the elderly, that volunteering to enlist for World War 2 in the mid 20th century was seen as obligatory by most to do their duty to nation and society - but in those times it was also an exciting adventure like opportunity to see the World.  Millennials, Gen Z and those following behind the Baby Boomers have had peacetime opportunity to explore overseas without the accompanying dangers of battle.

We have been given authority like advice on the health risks of eating eggs, desired blood pressure points and the benefits of health supplements.  Dissenting voices now appear in cyberspace to counter or modify such advice.  Every one has an individual uniqueness health wise - and to be subject to population averages can be missing the mark.

Many of us must have reflected on the serious loyalty and passion of sitting down to watch and hear the news telecast.   As the internet liberated the expression of and accessibility to information, it has become so clear and evident of how such news content has been cherry picked and emphasised according to the powers of the day (financial, geopolitical and more).  Now the equivalant Town Hall megaphone pundits are doing it by clicks, social media and more.

Nothing is forever.  The impermanence of Things pervades more than ever, despite the tech advance, the addictive distractions and new ideas.   Strive and enjoy the Moment.  A promise can be fulfilled and yet disintegrate due to the consistency of Change.   Excessive attachments interfere with true happiness.  Flora bloom, rot and regenerate.  Politicians come and go, together with whatever inspiration, lies and mediocrities.  The Cloud demands your money payments after you get comfy storing your data having access to it from any device.  Pets die.  And yet we have to carry on.

When young, our brains and inner soul absorb the wonder and fascination of what we are being fed in all respects.   Only later do we realise the half truths of the geopolitical game.   That Prime Minister we honoured in our childhood turns out to be a scroundel.   The public or commercial institution we use has mismanaged our data.  Customers long loyal to a specific entity get rewarded by being screwed with higher charges and bad service.

The romanticisation from movies, travel brochures and legends have hidden realities.   Exotic locales can mean suppression of Indigenous peoples.   History is always recorded ignoring the contributions from humans and human structures not useful to the World as it is According to Those In Power.

When we have been brain washed through the years, essentially we can still hang on to myths, tampered propanganda and blurry impressions of the past.

Were historical leaders that good?

Where we witness a mass of people wailing at state funerals, do we remember the dark side and acts of the deceased indivudual when he or she was in power?  Human beings are easily swept over by overwhelming public emotion.  To realise the truth, even if not downtrodden, is a liberating experience.

The distractions of the past also point a way to better manage the continuing delusions of the present.
If you look close enough, history does repeat.   There are similar characteristics in the personality and pyschological make up of humans and entities out to delude us all the way to the future.

On the bright side, delusions experienced are only a necessary stage on your journey to realisation and awakening.


#yongkevthoughts

Paradise Retained?

 This possibly remaining vestige of colonialism is hardly brought up by the mainstream media.

The recent riots in Noumea, blamed on the Melanesian Kanak independence movement, is part of a brewing dissatisfaction evident in New Caledonia in as many years.

The bright side - Even if the French territories in the South Pacific are so far away from Europe, their residents of whatever background amazingly are given full rights to vote in French  elections - something the British, Germans, Portuguese and Dutch never did in Africa or Asia.

Noumea is pretty scenic and is part of the romanticised chain of still French controlled part of South Pacific locations that include Tahiti and Bora Bora.

It is nearer for Aussies from the east coast to fly to New Caledonia than to fly to Singapore or Bangkok.

There is a direct flight from Changi Singapore to
Noumea on AirCalin.

The Down side - it can be very expensive to maintain political, military and supply logistic control  over a few isles on the other side of the world.

Still Paris can quickly send a thousand troops to New Caledonia quickly following the recent extensive riots in May this

year in Noumea.

Tiny New Caledonia is the world's fourth largest producer of Nickel,  after Indonesia, Phillippines and Russia.  Almost a quarter of people employed in New Caledonia work in the nickel production sector.

South east and East Asians migrated to New Caledonia in the past for this nickel mining rush.

There can be issues with environmental impact from nickel mining.

When The War Came To My Reality

 

When The War Came to my Reality.

Aussies have long had this perception of battles taking place far away, fighting for freedom of peoples in other lands.

Even if our continental island seems distant from the big troubles across the Northern Hemisphere, what happens when Australia takes its dutiful turn to host battles to be fought on behalf of its allies?

Let us be all prepared for the physical, social and personal landscape suffered as collateral damage. 

Politicians of different shades can still keep arguing with each other, but the reality for the rest of us at ground level must make us prepare ourselves for harrowing eventualities.

Many things on our media, distracting us with irrelevant matters for so many years, will not matter anymore.

Reality shows will be replaced by reality.   The pandemic will be pushed aside ( if it already has been) by the impact of intense failure of our logistics, energy supply, communications, food and economic grids.  A lack of national unity and leadership can amplify the negative fallout.   A lack of independent purpose and stance will make foreigners increase manipulation of our societal and collective spirit.

Military fight outs can damage our land and natural resources in ways more extensive than the charge of the Light Brigade.  Who, why and what are we fighting for?    Those who urge us Australians to sacrifice and suffer are most likely sitting in the comfort of their leather cushioned offices really far far away.  Oh does not that sound so familiar?

Food shortages in wartime will be more frightening than that of toilet paper in 2020.    Fuel shortages will paralyse more than just jaunts to the supermarkets and beaches.   Innocent individuals can be banished to harsh climate corners of our vast land.   Ports and facilities will be targeted, towns in wrong places sacrificed and the sense of being stunned and conquered can add to our national pysche.

The outreach of intercontinental weapons is not limited to ballistic missiles, but are more deadly using cyberspace, artificial intelligence and sensory devices.   Australia can be held as hostage in the political tapestry of technologically advanced conflicts.   Her dependencies in critical requirements on overseas supply can undo her bargaining counter strengths.   Her relatively smaller population can be no match for her opponents.   Will the Australian government and society be punished for their perceived and actual taking of sides?  Will our military arnaments be such a pittance in capability when we need to rely on them?

Will the outcome of conflict fought out on Aussie soil be not up to us, but more on the decisions, motives and actions of outsiders?

The outcomes of actual conflict in northern Australia can divide the territory of the Lucky Country.  Years of hosting foreign powers can come home to roost in coming to more than hairs with powerful  militaries which see such bases as interfering with their strategic safety and vital interests.  Australia can stage landlocked destruction like a pawn in geopolitical chess.

Will another country save us?
Succesive Australian governments
have opted to serve more of the requirements of powerful so called Big Brothers, rather than gradually assert its own independent stand. Being overly loyal to outsiders does not guarantee a return of favour in an increasingly complex and evolving world of competitive power.

So if and when the war comes to our door step, be truly prepared.  No matter what......

#yongkevthoughts

The G7 today

The G7 looks like an alumni of the victors from the two devastating world wars of the 20th century. Definitely not, as historical enemy states from that era, Japan and Germany, are sitting on the table as part of the seven core members. North America and Europe contribute most of this so called select group of seven nations. Past allies like Russia and China from those world wars are now viewed by this mostly Western Alliance as hostile. Asia-Pacific is represented only by Japan. Is the G7 a group of the current and growing powerhouse economies? Banish that idea - Brazil, India, Indonesia and China are not in this group of seven. Smaller economies like Australia and South Africa are asked to attend on the side lines. Someone I know pointed out to me that the G7 nations, except for Canada, all have USA military bases on their soil. Some quarters view the G7 as a core military alliance in a future world war scenario for the 21st century. Instead of seizing an opportunity to further cooperate for peaceful global development, this interpretation emphasises the significance and powerful influence of weapons producers and traders in our politically unstable world. Does the G7 represent one side of a potential clash of civilisations? Or is it a manifestation of one side of an evolving trade war? Some Asians I know view the G7 as an alliance of Western powers, trying to ensure that its long held dominance in geopolitics is not whittled away. The problem with this opinion is why Japan is part of and Russia is not part of the G7. Yet, Africans, Asians apart from Japan, Latin Americans, Indigenous nations and Middle Easterners are notably not members of the G7. So it is definitely an exclusive club. More likely the G7 is an alumni of past and still current dominant powers, which increasingly have to deal with the realities, on various growing fronts, of a quick changing contemporary world. #yongkevthoughts

Risk and Opportunity 2021

 

A Baker's Dozen of non-Covid  Significant Risk and Opportunity Themes We Face in 2021 - in no particular order.

1.    The Pace of Healing of Divisiveness and Polarisation in the USA.

2.     The low interest rate environment impacting on macroeconomic policy, fiscal management, investment options and personal financing.

3.    Life after Brexit in Britain.

4.    How China, Russia, America, Japan and Europe make their next moves on the chess board.

5.    Trying to rebounce the dynamics of international travel.

6.     Rising use of AI and the evolving transformation of consumer experience.

7.     Oligopolistic business  ownership in technology, health, social media, energy, transport, resource extraction and agricultural sectors.

8.     Compromised and hidden relationships in managing a nation's key assets and strategic parameters.

9.      Changes in the evolving nature of financial currency, market value chains, banking and trading mechanisms.

10.   Continued transformation of mindsets and practice in the political spectrum, including nationalism, modification of democratic practices, heartlander alienation and promotion of cultural uniqueness.

11.   Rising  concerns about intrusions into personal privacy and data utilised for dubious purposes, coupled with more access to overloads of misleading information and news.

12.    The role of world dependence on petroleum in the complex geopolitical stage of the Middle East.

#yongkevthoughts