Europa Europa

 Europeans are often viewed as originating in the north west corner of the Northern Hemisphere.  This misperception of the term "European" can downplay the extensive presence of Slavic demographics in Russia, south eastern Europe and the eastern Slav nations.

Russia has lands extend from eastern Europe to the coasts above Japan, Korea and China - 77 per cent of Russian territory is in Asia, although most Russians live in Europe. Russia can be said to be straddling both Europe and Asia.

It really depends on a point of view.

The European continent as such can be seen as layers of differing historical, religious and cultural implications.  The Vikings were focused on colder climes, as opposed to the Mediterranean nations that were the locations of the Greek, Roman and Ottoman traditions.

In between are the core of what is perhaps to be central European -  Latin influenced territories meeting up with Germanic homelands and spreading into the Balkans.

The impact Europe has made on the contemporary world has been having better technology, implementing colonisation, stirring geopolitics, conducting the major wars of the 20th century and securing world wide trade links. 

The Empire under which the sun once never sets - the British - has spawned five Anglocentric societies that still cuddle together in political flavour and intent in the 21st century. 

Apart from the Mother Country, the other four already have resident Indigenous peoples before their colonisation.  Britain used to extensively rely on agricultural, human, logistics and military resources from this alliance - and still do to varying extents.  Three of these nations still have a British monarch at the top of the chain.

There are two obvious nations geographically far removed from Europe -  but evolved into their present day realities primarily built from European settlement.  One is Argentina, populated by southern Europeans - and the other is Australia, first settled by the British and Irish.  Each nation is sited in a part of the world surrounded by non European cultures.

Being geographically located so close to northern Africa and the so called Middle East, Europe has significantly been affected by outside influences.  The European mind has in the long term been heavily influenced by, amongst others:

Arabian mathematics,
Greek philosophy,
Roman infrastructure,
City states that valued diversity, Mongolian attacks,
Muslim rule,
the Renaissance,
political upheaval,
artistic movements,
the power of royalty and
movement of peoples attracted by her wealth and relative freedoms.

Queen Victoria and Prince Albert had their daughters married off across various European royalties, including that to the last Russian Tsar. 

The remnants of colonialism in the 20th century had Indians, Africans and south east Asians establishing residential status across France, Holland, the UK and Spain. 

The conflicts in 21st century Arab nations, economic seekers from Africa and south Asia and left wing political correctness added to another wave to another significant wave of migration, particularly to Germany and the Scandinavian nations.

The Indian diaspora seems to now be at its height of dispersion and extensiveness.
A transformative event was the expulsion of ethnic Indian residents from Uganda.  This started the Indianisation of Britain, which had to accept them based on their colonial status.  The Empire struck back and Anglo Indian manifestation spread onwards from Mother England to Canada and the United States.

Indian political and cultural prowess had already been evident in south east Asia before the advent of Islam and European takeovers.  Perhaps Indianisation here was more successful than Sinofication - one just reflects on evidence of Hindu and Buddhist kingdoms, artefacts, arts and structures scattered from present day Vietnam to Java.  The rather significant Indian influences also expressed themselves in language - contemporary Malay or Indonesian language has words originating from Sanskrit and other Indian tongues.

Will this historical Indian influence now seep and revive into the fabric of the five Anglicentric nations?  It has already established more than a beach head in the United Kingdom.  Will Indianisation jump across the Channel into mainland Europe - which is already grappling with Muslim demographics in the key nations of France, Germany and Scandinavia?

In eastern Europe, questions have arisen as to whether Russia wants to expand beyond her borders, or just wants to maintain her historical integrity.  Continental Europe's past has been significantly marked by what three powers do -  German- Prussian, French or Russian.  British royalty has Germanic foundations.  Europeans have given the world her share of philosophers, scientists, artists, political leaders and dictators.

South of the borders of Russia are the central Asian states and China.  China and India had the largest economies in the world before the onslaught of sailing ships, colonisation and the rise of European powers.  White Russians have lived together with Manchurians, Koreans and Han Chinese in the north eastern corner of the Eurasian mass.  The role of Russians as Europeans interacting with Asians has often been underemphasised.

The closeness of Communism from Soviet Russia into the development of Chinese Communism has resulted from how most European colonial powers treated a fledging and weak Chinese Republic after the fall of the last royal dynasty in 1912.
Key China leaders did however spend their formative years savouring and exploring revolutionary ideas and polititical thought in Paris.

The rather embedded sentiments in Europe from 1945, with the United States and her four Anglo connected partners rescuing Europe from the Nazis, are still difficult to shake off.  This sentiment perhaps has to be seriously resolved as Europe navigates into the future.  Europe has this vital opportunity to implement her own strategic interests and values in the face of changing geopolitics and the rise of a multi-polar world.

Most European powers have divested of their colonies, except for France and the United Kingdom.   Emerging powers are now strengthened by rising abilities in technology, infrastructure, trade and new networks in political relationships - not in far flung isles, navy ports of old and geographical spots which are no longer
strategic.

#yongkevthoughts

Ten Nations, Ten Economies

China, USA, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Russia, Brazil, India and Indonesia - these forecasted biggest economies by 2050, in no particular order, as predicted by PwC, seem to have the largest populations as well, apart from the UK and Germany.

Three of them - USA, Russia and China - also have sizeable warfare capability.
At the same time, the current USA administration views China as a competitive threat in various fields, whether they be high tech, trading, political systems, economic capacity and more.

The USA has a strong network of military bases around the world but domestically its people deserve renewal and expansion of public infrastructure. China has currently only one military base on foreign soil and within and without China itself, has built up impressive transport links, including High Speed Rail links, contemporary bridges and new highways.

China spends much effort and funding on improving itself, thrives on its Confucian based educational system and emphasises on social order - while the USA is a huge arms supplier, does not renew for the future by replacing its core industries and has lots of freedom of expression.

The population disparity of the USA when compared with Russia and China adds to another dimension of analysis when more people have rising incomes. This implication echoes in market purchasing power, less reliance on overseas buyers, flexibility in economic growth and cultural pride.

Leadership in these three nations is determined differently - yet this is is a critical factor as to how the USA, China and Russia bear out in navigating their future path. The USA is a relatively young nation and was built by immigrants, when compared with the richer cultural and nationalistic traditions and heritage of Russia and China.

How will each of these three nations balance the all important pattern of strength of economy and power of political systems?

Germany seems to continue to be the financial leader of Europe in the 21st century. Historically, Europe has been a dramatic stage point of fierce militaristic contention. Russian, French, German, Austro-Hungarian and British forces have helped draw out the boundaries of the sub-continent today. The Middle East has influenced Europeans not only in the Rennaisance, but exported its religious, philosophical, scientific and cultural influences in a very regular and effective way.

How Germany deals with Russia as both economies lead this region in 2050 is important. Russia currently has a higher level of natural resources, economic growth potential and population than any other European country. Germany is a powerhouse of technology, scientific advancement and political leadership.

Yet Germany also finds itself at the interface between Christian and Muslim influences as it continues to enjoy its relatively better economic prosperity.

The UK is a shade of its once glorious dominance, which commenced when the sun set over its once world wide colonial empire. Still, it has developed a London centric financial hub, perhaps neglecting the economic future of the countryside, but attracting the skilled young from so many countries. The Royal Family provides a reliable institution to mesh with the checks and balances of its Westminster parliamentary system. 

Perhaps the stongest feature of the British economy is its relative openness to foreigners and foreign influences. This trait may be reduced when and if Brexit becomes a reality. Will Britain break up as a result of the consequences of Brexit? More certain is an economic downturn for Britain on its divorce from the EU.

Immigrants from its former colonies have added to the colour and vibrancy of its economy in the cities. The Industrial Revolution and the proceeds of colonial era trade laid very strong foundations tor the British economy. The important question is what the nation is investing for its future. Is it higher education, high tech or a reliable place to park and grow money?

Brazil will continue to be subject to socio-political instability risks as its demographics enjoy better wealth. How democracy can be modified or improved is yet to be seen even with better per capita incomes. Will the indigenous people within Brazil get a better life? The various demographics who live in Brazil will experience more expectations in the quality of life, as what we saw in China in the past three decades.

If history is to be repeated, better economic growth in Brazil can see more decimation of the forests, more upsets in the ecosystem and more financial inequities. Yet this is the opportunity for Portuguese speaking Brazil to provide a positive example to Latin American nations, even if the neighbours speak Spanish.

Mexico will be the powerhouse of Latin America. The nation has always been cast as the poorer cousin in North America, but has a pool of people more passionate to improve their lives. Crime, corruption and a big income gap have colluded to economically oppress the masses, together with a volatile and varying governing leadership. 

Emigration has offered a channel of relief, especially to other territories with a richer lifestyle and where people also speak Spanish. What the USA does is critical but the Mexican population, although less than that in the USA, is growing faster than their neighbour north across the border (Also reflect on Indonesian and Australian population parameters.)

Mexico relies on industries such as peteoleum, car manufacture, tourism, food, iron and steel plus consumer durables like clothes. It relies hugely on trade with the USA, Canada, Spain and Brazil. The country has to lift itself out from this profile as its economy grows - and it can be done with good leadership.

India does speak a variety of languages, including English, but is subject to nationalism risks and socio-political vulnerabilities. The nation is said to soon exceed the population of China, but how does the government harness the promise and talent of each individual? 

There is a significant diaspora of Indians, not only in south east Asia and south Africa, but also in the Western societies of the UK, Canada, the USA, Australia and New Zealand, plus in miscellaneous territories in the Caribbean and the South Pacific. Will this other talent pool also add to India's gigantic economic growth?

India has not developed the high degree of public infrastructure that China has. Whilst contemporary China downplays the role of religion, Indians place faith and prayer as part of every day life. 

India as a nation is a federated entity created by the departing colonials, and its variety of different cultural entities can be as varied as in Europe.

Japan was the original non European Boy Wonder in the 1970s, with its disciplined society, fascination and ability to implement effective processes, its powerful links between business and Government, a focussed educational system and a collective will to recover from its failed imperial military excesses. It is now a very mature economy, only with different work habits and attitudes from the Americans, but do share some of the positive charactetistics of the Germans.

Japan remains one of the few modern societies resistent to having large numbers of immigrants, apart from China, Pacific Ocean nations and several African states. It has prospered on maintaining a homogenous and unique culture and society. An aging society is forcing a rethink on such a policy, together with high pressures on the young in education and at work.

The economic growth of Japan has occured under the defence and military umbrella provided by the USA. When and if such arrangements end, the vulnerabilities of the Japanese islands can resurface. Japan's geopolitical position between the strategic and economic interests of China and the USA can be a two edged sword.

The rise of China has had ripple effects on Japan, when both cultures and nations has had intertwining relationships historically, in trade and in competition.

The mystery question for me is Indonesia, with an outsized population compared to its neighbours and subject to social and religious risks plus a huge income divide. Indonesia spreads across an archipelago of islands with room to grow in personal wealth and quality of life.

There are huge natural resources to utilise for thee masses instead of just for the just privileged and connected families. Risks of radicalisation continue to counter weigh against the benefits of growth. The military, religious leaders and a national consciousness are critical in propelling an optimal path for a growing economy.

Brazil, Mexico and India do not face the issues of declining populations in the next 30 years. The population size is only but one of the several factors promoting economic growth. Technology, governance stability, having strategic advantages, avoiding the damage from warfare, having insightful and progressive leadership, possessing unique natural and man made resources plus a political system that encourages innovation do help.