The Stars From The Universe Are Watching

 April and May 2025 can be emerging as a a transitionary time, when the stars of the Universe are looking at the choices of many groups of Homo Sapiens in their rituals and society behaviours.   Will the course of human civillisation encounter significant changes, or more things will be the same, with just different players forefront on the world stage?

Elections can be just smokescreens to seemingly give the human being on the street a sense of participation.   The powers that truly are can be putting the individuals they control as their continuing agents.

Registered voters head to the booths to mark their ballots in Canada, Singapore and Australia.   

Canada has seen the exit of long time Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose government has overseen the age of Covid epidemics, changing attitudes towards relentless immigration,  more acknowledgement of past injustices towards her Indigenous peoples, continuing pressure from the government of her nearest neighbour and rising costs of living.

Singapore has a newly minted Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, urgently handling a sweeping change of the landscape in international  trade, finance and economic exchanges as the fall out from the return to power of a controversial person as the POTUS.  That latter person has recently been most effective in creating widespread uncertainty.

The Australian Labor Government seeking re-election on 3 May has at most been under performing under Anthony Albanese, who has been reluctant to differ in several respects from its Opposition,  continue to toe the line and requirements from the USA and been ineffective and mainly bushfire reactive to the rising costs of housing, food, utilities, lack of commercial competition and social issues.

Although restricted to the Conclave, laden with traditional secrecy and religious ritual,  the selection of the next Pope at the Vatican is essentially a political process.    The successful candidate, who emerges on the balcony after white smoke is seen bellowing,  presides over 1.4 billion Catholics, mainly in Africa, South and Central America, the Phillippines, Timor-Leste and Europe.

Nations outside the USA are scrambling to reorganise supply logistics, access to critical minerals and manufacturing ingredients, payment systems, trading arrangements, over reliance on the USA and other impacts on GDP and economic growth.

Military conflict, suffering by the masses as part of socio-political aggression, the enrichment of the arnaments business and an intense propaganda media channeling remain key features of continuing disputes in the part of the world that transverses Sudan, Yemen, Gaza, the West Bank,  Ukraine and bordering parts of Russia.

Will Europe wake up to being more self reliant, more proactive and united in her affairs and strategy?   It can be a time to diversify alliances, partners and arrangements.   So can the disparate nations of South-east Asia, historically caught between the tradewinds and politics of the so called East and West.   Problems can be opportunity,   challenges can be the time to build a new future.

The sanctions, boycotts and cutoffs faced by the Chinese economy in recent years have made China even more determined and passionate to significantly improve their growing advanced technology,  reduce strategic  risks and become more self sufficient.    This is a nation that does not have enough food security,  takes on the massive macro debts of an over spending USA and now beginning to reduce the utilisation of the USD, long seen as a safe vital currency.

So will change be grabbed by the horns of the proverbial bull?    Will voters choose more of the same?   Can political leaders realise that viable preparations for a very different social, political and economic future may be too late?   Will governments continue to bask in the comfort zone of a landscape that has disappeared and not come back?  Will societies continue to be led by individuals who think less of their own nation and follow the wants of another country?   Will cabinets wait for reactive mindsets, instead of being proactive?

#yongkevthoughts

Singapore Faces the Usa Tariffs

 Singapore finds itself so vulnerable with the April 2025  Trumpian tariff moves.

Singapore is a society that even has to import basic things like food.  The nation has prospered as a hub of trading, a broker of exchange, a strategic sea, air and technology port and churner of business.

With high tariffs, kicked off by Trump as only a starter of what he really wants, in this current upset in international relations, countries are varying in approaches and reactions to current Usa government moves.  Some retaliate, others take it on the chin, many wake up from this jolt to the assumed benefits from the  use of comparative advantage, niche specialisation  and freer trade of the recent past.

The current shock felt by most economies also is the result from perhaps over relying on the Usa to continue buying from them.  The Usa has long ago given up its own capability to manufacture many things - although it still holds an advantage in making pharmaceuticals, IT related retail products, commercial aircraft, military arnaments  and agricultural produce -  items that Singapore precisely require.

Singapore's pillars of growth, until the cloud of current uncertainty clears, lie exposed if human civilisation  sinks into convulated trade wars.

If nations outside the Usa take this opportunity to increase trading links amongst themselves, Trump can find himself increasingly isolated.   The reality is that the world has generally put its risks and growth parameters overly on the Usa - and the quake has arrived.

I have to remind myself that the Usa economy also requires things from other nations - they are not self sufficent.  The Usa overspends in retail consumption and consistently is in debt, not only in government operations, but also because other national governments and non  Usa imvestors are willng to finance that debt.

What does the Usa need from.Singapore? 

Maybe more in non trading matters - a military base or partner,  a supporter of sea routes that the  Usa utilises for various reasons,  a supplier of high tech components?

#yongkevthoughts

The Churn 2025

 The way stock exchange prices fall or rise are all part of the way shares work.  Sentiment, speculation, fundamentals, demand, uncertainty, competition, chase for higher returns, timeliness, hedging, parking, liquidity and more.

Financial trading, asset values, share churning and investment stability are all vulnerable to quake like proportions of downstream and immediate impact of significant tariff impositions by a dominant player like the USA government. 

Topsy turvy  causes and events are currently shaking human made arrangements that have been in use for so many years.  At least for now, or for some time.

Whether it leads to better or worse times, opportunity or challenge, or a storm that passes by, is up to our mindset, response, reaction and migitative action we choose.

History can repeat or rhyme.  Trump is not original in his actions.   Tariffs and sanctions have been applied in spectacular fashion by the USA and other nations in the past, leading to war, awakening,  upheaval, regrowth, industrial change, the doldrums and philosophical reflection.

To me, it is what we, as individuals,  have already learnt or  do learn further intrinsically from such human made developments, that is more significant.

Human systems in society can be fragile, turbulent, structurally vulnerable or shaking in political winds.   Yet they can be embedded in longer lasting values, infrastructure, internationally agreed and implemented agreements and principles.   The growth of human civilisation demonstrated the tensions between opppsite ends of the spectrum, change management or mismanagement and the destruction of the old to make way for the new.

At times human beings have to take steps backwards in order to go forward.  What used to work can be chucked ruthlessly away by events of Nature, political ego, silo thinking religious or cultural imperatives and more.  What did not work can be taken up again in a tornado of other priorities.  What works can be adopted once more by a new dynasty.

The masses continue to be swept up in the aftermath of decisions, wise or otherwise, made by individuals and their cohorts in power   - whether financial, technological, political or more.  In a population of eight billion, most of the denizens of Earth are like the proverbial ants that some can look upon with disdain  or without care.

In the meantime, the eagle still soars.  The moon continues to exert its gravity on the tides.  Human beings in their masses still lose some of their reality in this contemporary world based more on instant gratification, excessive waste and false diversions.   Human nature is essentially self centred - but the finesse and  cultivation by some societies of community priority over self can help to reverse this selfish characteristic.

News media reacts.  They do not really help us respond or think effectively on a holistic basis.  Their business is to churn, excite, incite and divide.  The presence of movement, or creating differences, is their rationale to make money out of events.

And so is making money out of investment in tangible assets, non tangible instruments of trade and finance, putting a bet on short or long term pricing of tradeable options, cashing on the lack of supply,  sentimentally driving up demand and liquidating at the right time.

Investments, trading, media reporting and  economic growth all need activity.  Why do finance websites, business reporting and 

investment screens obsessively display continuous trends and changes?   Revenue is mostly earned on the acquisition and disposal of the variety of investments, hedged, physical, derivative or intangible.  

Both news and finance thrive on events that spark off sentiment waves.

Nature does not sit still  either.  Our planet does move,  babies do grow,  seasons change.  

In human society, assets run down past their useful life,  man made currencies without the backing of gold vary in value and perception of worth and societies can collapse, as opposed to the unrealistic presumption that growth happens eternally.

Bullies know when their territory is being reduced, when their competitiveness has declined and they cannot practically get back to their days of misplaced glory.  The human pysche is built for change, adaptation and improvement.   Being the top dog a half century ago does not ensure being still king of the hill in 50 years in the future.  Down trodden economies of even 20 years ago, with renewed effort, intelligence and reorganisation can blossom for the future.

They embed themselves with longer lasting vibrancy, strength and meaningful management, direction and effort.  They do not resort to short term aggressive measures -  they build up their capability, markets and trade.

#yongkevthoughts