Ten Nations, Ten Economies

China, USA, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Russia, Brazil, India and Indonesia - these forecasted biggest economies by 2050, in no particular order, as predicted by PwC, seem to have the largest populations as well, apart from the UK and Germany.

Three of them - USA, Russia and China - also have sizeable warfare capability.
At the same time, the current USA administration views China as a competitive threat in various fields, whether they be high tech, trading, political systems, economic capacity and more.

The USA has a strong network of military bases around the world but domestically its people deserve renewal and expansion of public infrastructure. China has currently only one military base on foreign soil and within and without China itself, has built up impressive transport links, including High Speed Rail links, contemporary bridges and new highways.

China spends much effort and funding on improving itself, thrives on its Confucian based educational system and emphasises on social order - while the USA is a huge arms supplier, does not renew for the future by replacing its core industries and has lots of freedom of expression.

The population disparity of the USA when compared with Russia and China adds to another dimension of analysis when more people have rising incomes. This implication echoes in market purchasing power, less reliance on overseas buyers, flexibility in economic growth and cultural pride.

Leadership in these three nations is determined differently - yet this is is a critical factor as to how the USA, China and Russia bear out in navigating their future path. The USA is a relatively young nation and was built by immigrants, when compared with the richer cultural and nationalistic traditions and heritage of Russia and China.

How will each of these three nations balance the all important pattern of strength of economy and power of political systems?

Germany seems to continue to be the financial leader of Europe in the 21st century. Historically, Europe has been a dramatic stage point of fierce militaristic contention. Russian, French, German, Austro-Hungarian and British forces have helped draw out the boundaries of the sub-continent today. The Middle East has influenced Europeans not only in the Rennaisance, but exported its religious, philosophical, scientific and cultural influences in a very regular and effective way.

How Germany deals with Russia as both economies lead this region in 2050 is important. Russia currently has a higher level of natural resources, economic growth potential and population than any other European country. Germany is a powerhouse of technology, scientific advancement and political leadership.

Yet Germany also finds itself at the interface between Christian and Muslim influences as it continues to enjoy its relatively better economic prosperity.

The UK is a shade of its once glorious dominance, which commenced when the sun set over its once world wide colonial empire. Still, it has developed a London centric financial hub, perhaps neglecting the economic future of the countryside, but attracting the skilled young from so many countries. The Royal Family provides a reliable institution to mesh with the checks and balances of its Westminster parliamentary system. 

Perhaps the stongest feature of the British economy is its relative openness to foreigners and foreign influences. This trait may be reduced when and if Brexit becomes a reality. Will Britain break up as a result of the consequences of Brexit? More certain is an economic downturn for Britain on its divorce from the EU.

Immigrants from its former colonies have added to the colour and vibrancy of its economy in the cities. The Industrial Revolution and the proceeds of colonial era trade laid very strong foundations tor the British economy. The important question is what the nation is investing for its future. Is it higher education, high tech or a reliable place to park and grow money?

Brazil will continue to be subject to socio-political instability risks as its demographics enjoy better wealth. How democracy can be modified or improved is yet to be seen even with better per capita incomes. Will the indigenous people within Brazil get a better life? The various demographics who live in Brazil will experience more expectations in the quality of life, as what we saw in China in the past three decades.

If history is to be repeated, better economic growth in Brazil can see more decimation of the forests, more upsets in the ecosystem and more financial inequities. Yet this is the opportunity for Portuguese speaking Brazil to provide a positive example to Latin American nations, even if the neighbours speak Spanish.

Mexico will be the powerhouse of Latin America. The nation has always been cast as the poorer cousin in North America, but has a pool of people more passionate to improve their lives. Crime, corruption and a big income gap have colluded to economically oppress the masses, together with a volatile and varying governing leadership. 

Emigration has offered a channel of relief, especially to other territories with a richer lifestyle and where people also speak Spanish. What the USA does is critical but the Mexican population, although less than that in the USA, is growing faster than their neighbour north across the border (Also reflect on Indonesian and Australian population parameters.)

Mexico relies on industries such as peteoleum, car manufacture, tourism, food, iron and steel plus consumer durables like clothes. It relies hugely on trade with the USA, Canada, Spain and Brazil. The country has to lift itself out from this profile as its economy grows - and it can be done with good leadership.

India does speak a variety of languages, including English, but is subject to nationalism risks and socio-political vulnerabilities. The nation is said to soon exceed the population of China, but how does the government harness the promise and talent of each individual? 

There is a significant diaspora of Indians, not only in south east Asia and south Africa, but also in the Western societies of the UK, Canada, the USA, Australia and New Zealand, plus in miscellaneous territories in the Caribbean and the South Pacific. Will this other talent pool also add to India's gigantic economic growth?

India has not developed the high degree of public infrastructure that China has. Whilst contemporary China downplays the role of religion, Indians place faith and prayer as part of every day life. 

India as a nation is a federated entity created by the departing colonials, and its variety of different cultural entities can be as varied as in Europe.

Japan was the original non European Boy Wonder in the 1970s, with its disciplined society, fascination and ability to implement effective processes, its powerful links between business and Government, a focussed educational system and a collective will to recover from its failed imperial military excesses. It is now a very mature economy, only with different work habits and attitudes from the Americans, but do share some of the positive charactetistics of the Germans.

Japan remains one of the few modern societies resistent to having large numbers of immigrants, apart from China, Pacific Ocean nations and several African states. It has prospered on maintaining a homogenous and unique culture and society. An aging society is forcing a rethink on such a policy, together with high pressures on the young in education and at work.

The economic growth of Japan has occured under the defence and military umbrella provided by the USA. When and if such arrangements end, the vulnerabilities of the Japanese islands can resurface. Japan's geopolitical position between the strategic and economic interests of China and the USA can be a two edged sword.

The rise of China has had ripple effects on Japan, when both cultures and nations has had intertwining relationships historically, in trade and in competition.

The mystery question for me is Indonesia, with an outsized population compared to its neighbours and subject to social and religious risks plus a huge income divide. Indonesia spreads across an archipelago of islands with room to grow in personal wealth and quality of life.

There are huge natural resources to utilise for thee masses instead of just for the just privileged and connected families. Risks of radicalisation continue to counter weigh against the benefits of growth. The military, religious leaders and a national consciousness are critical in propelling an optimal path for a growing economy.

Brazil, Mexico and India do not face the issues of declining populations in the next 30 years. The population size is only but one of the several factors promoting economic growth. Technology, governance stability, having strategic advantages, avoiding the damage from warfare, having insightful and progressive leadership, possessing unique natural and man made resources plus a political system that encourages innovation do help.