Eighteen Months On

6 July 2021 - 11am. The USA Government has not reached its planned c19 related vaccination targets set by President Biden. On the 245 th anniversary of its founding, Stateside had undergone a tumultous year of continued racial divisions, a widespread Coronavirus affliction, political drama and reaffirmed some values and approaches in how it interacts with the rest of the world. Australia as a Federation has reached its 120th year.  Most of its population resides in its south-eastern corner.  The continental island can be as wide as mainland USA, but only has 7.8 percent of the American population. Vaccination, rightly or wrongly, has been emphasised by both Governments to manage the never ending spread of c19.  Canberra is however way behind its vaccination targets and continues to offer an ever changing scenario in this space. Sydney still grapples with a resurgence in c19 local transmission infections.  Although relatively small in numbers, this new outbreak starting at Bondi is said to be dealing with a more infectious mutant strain. The public may not have been fully informed about the severity, or lack of severity, of symptoms of those who tested positive with mostly the Delta strain, although a few hospitalisations or ICU admissions have occured amongst the so far accumulated 330 identified cases in Greater Sydney since 16 June. Melbourne and regional Victoria managed to come out from its fourth c19 related lockdown in June, after a leakage from a returned overseas passenger who was infected in an Adelaide quarantine hotel. By the middle of 2021, Australia has had its international borders mainly closed for around 16 months. In the same period, the character of the Commonwealth has been underlined by the lack of available workers for low paid jobs across several fronts, the shutting out of international students, the intensity of disagreements between state governments and Canberra, the best agricultural output yet in as many years and the smashing of conventions about inner city life. As many as perhaps a third of the workers at the Summitcare Aged Care facility in the north western Sydney suburb of Baulkham Hills were reported as not yet been vaccinated. The focus on this matter came about after five aged care residents at this facility were tested positive with Delta after being infected originally by a staff member. Is there vaccination  hesitancy amongst aged care sector workers, due to lack of confidence in the only available two brands -  or is it more of the risks of personal loss of earnings if they suffer post vaccination side effects?   There is also a real fear by employers at aged care facilities in Australia that they may find a drought in staff availability, if they are all required to be vaccinated.  This can be a chicken and egg scenario that illustrates the bungled roll out of c19 vaccines in Australia, despite the Canberra bubble and state governments touting vaccinations as the manna from heaven in this presumed epidemic. Canberra has so far stumbled on implementation, revised opinions and continued their mixed messaging in this vaccination process for the public.   Their other key tasks in this age of c19 has been to manage our international borders,  help the states quarantine the continuing flow of overseas arrivals at capital city airports and have its medical bureaucrats make pronouncements on how to handle c19. Governments of the Australian states and territories, in varying behaviour, have shown how aggressively independent they can be.  This may not be a negative development, especially in their dealings with Canberra.  Observers can note the divisions arising from political party alignments; the different risk tolerance taken in public health management ( reflect on the different appraches, say between Western Australia and NSW); the frequent use of state border closures, with little time notifications given; and the outcomes for states and territories, bearing the brunt and consequences of poor logistics, lack of attention to detail and many broad and generalised announcements from Canberra. NSW has always had the state government being very consistent in one particular restriction, when any c19 cluster hits Sydney - no singing, no dancing.  At times, outsiders can mistakenly  perceive NSW as one mass school of the performing arts.  Policy changes  by the NSW State Government, since March 2020, have otherwise varied on the usefulness of wearing face masks, the inclusion or exclusion of areas outside Sydney proper as " Greater Sydney", the timing of introducing lockdowns and providing various details or omitted information about daily confirmed positives. Where NSW has been perhaps the most liberal in the current Sydney lockdown, compared to other states,  experts have pointed out the absence of a ceiling in km for travel restriction; the variety of retail outlets that can still open during a so called lockdown; the requirement of face masking only indoors; and  the lack of better controls on vulnerable sectors like medical hubs, aged care homes and shopping clusters. And the children!   This demographic has been paid least attention, until the recent focus on pushing more extensive vaccination rates throughout communities.  Will this help achieve the supposed benefits of reaching herd immunity, or is there another unspoken agenda?  Schools in the Bondi area have reported Delta infections in children. The lack of compliance with common sense social distancing can be a distinct feature of human behaviour in Sydney, since the Bondi cluster was reported on 16 June.  The love of the outdoors by fellow Aussies, on the other hand,can be a good habit in reducing the risks of catching c19, as proper ventilation always helps. Ventilation can be reduced in flow and quality inside crowded indoor venues.  Delta case infections have been confirmed from parties in inner city Waterloo and suburban West Hoxton, having  a meal in Paddington  and taking a domestic flight from the Gold Coast to Sydney. The current Delta strain pattern of infection cases can seem to be deja vu for Sydney - overseas arrivals as the source, household contact cases, workers unintentionally affecting hospitals and aged care homes, infection clusters are detected at work places, people getting infected eating at indoor venues and infectees with no symptoms allowed to travel far from home. There can be increasing reluctance to affect the economy after so many months of c19. A lockdown does not only curtail physical movement for individuals, but it also can negatively affect turnover in sales and revenues for business models still using physical stores. The NSW state Government seems to rely on ever changing daily case numbers to make decisions.  These can range from infections picked up from testing,  a listing of exposure spots, active cases remaining, number of cases linked, number of infectees moving about in the community while still being infectious and number of new reported cases who have already been isolating at home, etc. Covid  has been more than a field day for statisticians!  To me, perhaps the most significant to watch for is the growth or reduction in the list of exposure sites. This tells me whether the Delta is still moving ahead of historical contact tracing. #yongkevthoughts

Ten Nations, Ten Economies

China, USA, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Russia, Brazil, India and Indonesia - these forecasted biggest economies by 2050, in no particular order, as predicted by PwC, seem to have the largest populations as well, apart from the UK and Germany.

Three of them - USA, Russia and China - also have sizeable warfare capability.
At the same time, the current USA administration views China as a competitive threat in various fields, whether they be high tech, trading, political systems, economic capacity and more.

The USA has a strong network of military bases around the world but domestically its people deserve renewal and expansion of public infrastructure. China has currently only one military base on foreign soil and within and without China itself, has built up impressive transport links, including High Speed Rail links, contemporary bridges and new highways.

China spends much effort and funding on improving itself, thrives on its Confucian based educational system and emphasises on social order - while the USA is a huge arms supplier, does not renew for the future by replacing its core industries and has lots of freedom of expression.

The population disparity of the USA when compared with Russia and China adds to another dimension of analysis when more people have rising incomes. This implication echoes in market purchasing power, less reliance on overseas buyers, flexibility in economic growth and cultural pride.

Leadership in these three nations is determined differently - yet this is is a critical factor as to how the USA, China and Russia bear out in navigating their future path. The USA is a relatively young nation and was built by immigrants, when compared with the richer cultural and nationalistic traditions and heritage of Russia and China.

How will each of these three nations balance the all important pattern of strength of economy and power of political systems?

Germany seems to continue to be the financial leader of Europe in the 21st century. Historically, Europe has been a dramatic stage point of fierce militaristic contention. Russian, French, German, Austro-Hungarian and British forces have helped draw out the boundaries of the sub-continent today. The Middle East has influenced Europeans not only in the Rennaisance, but exported its religious, philosophical, scientific and cultural influences in a very regular and effective way.

How Germany deals with Russia as both economies lead this region in 2050 is important. Russia currently has a higher level of natural resources, economic growth potential and population than any other European country. Germany is a powerhouse of technology, scientific advancement and political leadership.

Yet Germany also finds itself at the interface between Christian and Muslim influences as it continues to enjoy its relatively better economic prosperity.

The UK is a shade of its once glorious dominance, which commenced when the sun set over its once world wide colonial empire. Still, it has developed a London centric financial hub, perhaps neglecting the economic future of the countryside, but attracting the skilled young from so many countries. The Royal Family provides a reliable institution to mesh with the checks and balances of its Westminster parliamentary system. 

Perhaps the stongest feature of the British economy is its relative openness to foreigners and foreign influences. This trait may be reduced when and if Brexit becomes a reality. Will Britain break up as a result of the consequences of Brexit? More certain is an economic downturn for Britain on its divorce from the EU.

Immigrants from its former colonies have added to the colour and vibrancy of its economy in the cities. The Industrial Revolution and the proceeds of colonial era trade laid very strong foundations tor the British economy. The important question is what the nation is investing for its future. Is it higher education, high tech or a reliable place to park and grow money?

Brazil will continue to be subject to socio-political instability risks as its demographics enjoy better wealth. How democracy can be modified or improved is yet to be seen even with better per capita incomes. Will the indigenous people within Brazil get a better life? The various demographics who live in Brazil will experience more expectations in the quality of life, as what we saw in China in the past three decades.

If history is to be repeated, better economic growth in Brazil can see more decimation of the forests, more upsets in the ecosystem and more financial inequities. Yet this is the opportunity for Portuguese speaking Brazil to provide a positive example to Latin American nations, even if the neighbours speak Spanish.

Mexico will be the powerhouse of Latin America. The nation has always been cast as the poorer cousin in North America, but has a pool of people more passionate to improve their lives. Crime, corruption and a big income gap have colluded to economically oppress the masses, together with a volatile and varying governing leadership. 

Emigration has offered a channel of relief, especially to other territories with a richer lifestyle and where people also speak Spanish. What the USA does is critical but the Mexican population, although less than that in the USA, is growing faster than their neighbour north across the border (Also reflect on Indonesian and Australian population parameters.)

Mexico relies on industries such as peteoleum, car manufacture, tourism, food, iron and steel plus consumer durables like clothes. It relies hugely on trade with the USA, Canada, Spain and Brazil. The country has to lift itself out from this profile as its economy grows - and it can be done with good leadership.

India does speak a variety of languages, including English, but is subject to nationalism risks and socio-political vulnerabilities. The nation is said to soon exceed the population of China, but how does the government harness the promise and talent of each individual? 

There is a significant diaspora of Indians, not only in south east Asia and south Africa, but also in the Western societies of the UK, Canada, the USA, Australia and New Zealand, plus in miscellaneous territories in the Caribbean and the South Pacific. Will this other talent pool also add to India's gigantic economic growth?

India has not developed the high degree of public infrastructure that China has. Whilst contemporary China downplays the role of religion, Indians place faith and prayer as part of every day life. 

India as a nation is a federated entity created by the departing colonials, and its variety of different cultural entities can be as varied as in Europe.

Japan was the original non European Boy Wonder in the 1970s, with its disciplined society, fascination and ability to implement effective processes, its powerful links between business and Government, a focussed educational system and a collective will to recover from its failed imperial military excesses. It is now a very mature economy, only with different work habits and attitudes from the Americans, but do share some of the positive charactetistics of the Germans.

Japan remains one of the few modern societies resistent to having large numbers of immigrants, apart from China, Pacific Ocean nations and several African states. It has prospered on maintaining a homogenous and unique culture and society. An aging society is forcing a rethink on such a policy, together with high pressures on the young in education and at work.

The economic growth of Japan has occured under the defence and military umbrella provided by the USA. When and if such arrangements end, the vulnerabilities of the Japanese islands can resurface. Japan's geopolitical position between the strategic and economic interests of China and the USA can be a two edged sword.

The rise of China has had ripple effects on Japan, when both cultures and nations has had intertwining relationships historically, in trade and in competition.

The mystery question for me is Indonesia, with an outsized population compared to its neighbours and subject to social and religious risks plus a huge income divide. Indonesia spreads across an archipelago of islands with room to grow in personal wealth and quality of life.

There are huge natural resources to utilise for thee masses instead of just for the just privileged and connected families. Risks of radicalisation continue to counter weigh against the benefits of growth. The military, religious leaders and a national consciousness are critical in propelling an optimal path for a growing economy.

Brazil, Mexico and India do not face the issues of declining populations in the next 30 years. The population size is only but one of the several factors promoting economic growth. Technology, governance stability, having strategic advantages, avoiding the damage from warfare, having insightful and progressive leadership, possessing unique natural and man made resources plus a political system that encourages innovation do help.