Eighteen Months On

6 July 2021 - 11am. The USA Government has not reached its planned c19 related vaccination targets set by President Biden. On the 245 th anniversary of its founding, Stateside had undergone a tumultous year of continued racial divisions, a widespread Coronavirus affliction, political drama and reaffirmed some values and approaches in how it interacts with the rest of the world. Australia as a Federation has reached its 120th year.  Most of its population resides in its south-eastern corner.  The continental island can be as wide as mainland USA, but only has 7.8 percent of the American population. Vaccination, rightly or wrongly, has been emphasised by both Governments to manage the never ending spread of c19.  Canberra is however way behind its vaccination targets and continues to offer an ever changing scenario in this space. Sydney still grapples with a resurgence in c19 local transmission infections.  Although relatively small in numbers, this new outbreak starting at Bondi is said to be dealing with a more infectious mutant strain. The public may not have been fully informed about the severity, or lack of severity, of symptoms of those who tested positive with mostly the Delta strain, although a few hospitalisations or ICU admissions have occured amongst the so far accumulated 330 identified cases in Greater Sydney since 16 June. Melbourne and regional Victoria managed to come out from its fourth c19 related lockdown in June, after a leakage from a returned overseas passenger who was infected in an Adelaide quarantine hotel. By the middle of 2021, Australia has had its international borders mainly closed for around 16 months. In the same period, the character of the Commonwealth has been underlined by the lack of available workers for low paid jobs across several fronts, the shutting out of international students, the intensity of disagreements between state governments and Canberra, the best agricultural output yet in as many years and the smashing of conventions about inner city life. As many as perhaps a third of the workers at the Summitcare Aged Care facility in the north western Sydney suburb of Baulkham Hills were reported as not yet been vaccinated. The focus on this matter came about after five aged care residents at this facility were tested positive with Delta after being infected originally by a staff member. Is there vaccination  hesitancy amongst aged care sector workers, due to lack of confidence in the only available two brands -  or is it more of the risks of personal loss of earnings if they suffer post vaccination side effects?   There is also a real fear by employers at aged care facilities in Australia that they may find a drought in staff availability, if they are all required to be vaccinated.  This can be a chicken and egg scenario that illustrates the bungled roll out of c19 vaccines in Australia, despite the Canberra bubble and state governments touting vaccinations as the manna from heaven in this presumed epidemic. Canberra has so far stumbled on implementation, revised opinions and continued their mixed messaging in this vaccination process for the public.   Their other key tasks in this age of c19 has been to manage our international borders,  help the states quarantine the continuing flow of overseas arrivals at capital city airports and have its medical bureaucrats make pronouncements on how to handle c19. Governments of the Australian states and territories, in varying behaviour, have shown how aggressively independent they can be.  This may not be a negative development, especially in their dealings with Canberra.  Observers can note the divisions arising from political party alignments; the different risk tolerance taken in public health management ( reflect on the different appraches, say between Western Australia and NSW); the frequent use of state border closures, with little time notifications given; and the outcomes for states and territories, bearing the brunt and consequences of poor logistics, lack of attention to detail and many broad and generalised announcements from Canberra. NSW has always had the state government being very consistent in one particular restriction, when any c19 cluster hits Sydney - no singing, no dancing.  At times, outsiders can mistakenly  perceive NSW as one mass school of the performing arts.  Policy changes  by the NSW State Government, since March 2020, have otherwise varied on the usefulness of wearing face masks, the inclusion or exclusion of areas outside Sydney proper as " Greater Sydney", the timing of introducing lockdowns and providing various details or omitted information about daily confirmed positives. Where NSW has been perhaps the most liberal in the current Sydney lockdown, compared to other states,  experts have pointed out the absence of a ceiling in km for travel restriction; the variety of retail outlets that can still open during a so called lockdown; the requirement of face masking only indoors; and  the lack of better controls on vulnerable sectors like medical hubs, aged care homes and shopping clusters. And the children!   This demographic has been paid least attention, until the recent focus on pushing more extensive vaccination rates throughout communities.  Will this help achieve the supposed benefits of reaching herd immunity, or is there another unspoken agenda?  Schools in the Bondi area have reported Delta infections in children. The lack of compliance with common sense social distancing can be a distinct feature of human behaviour in Sydney, since the Bondi cluster was reported on 16 June.  The love of the outdoors by fellow Aussies, on the other hand,can be a good habit in reducing the risks of catching c19, as proper ventilation always helps. Ventilation can be reduced in flow and quality inside crowded indoor venues.  Delta case infections have been confirmed from parties in inner city Waterloo and suburban West Hoxton, having  a meal in Paddington  and taking a domestic flight from the Gold Coast to Sydney. The current Delta strain pattern of infection cases can seem to be deja vu for Sydney - overseas arrivals as the source, household contact cases, workers unintentionally affecting hospitals and aged care homes, infection clusters are detected at work places, people getting infected eating at indoor venues and infectees with no symptoms allowed to travel far from home. There can be increasing reluctance to affect the economy after so many months of c19. A lockdown does not only curtail physical movement for individuals, but it also can negatively affect turnover in sales and revenues for business models still using physical stores. The NSW state Government seems to rely on ever changing daily case numbers to make decisions.  These can range from infections picked up from testing,  a listing of exposure spots, active cases remaining, number of cases linked, number of infectees moving about in the community while still being infectious and number of new reported cases who have already been isolating at home, etc. Covid  has been more than a field day for statisticians!  To me, perhaps the most significant to watch for is the growth or reduction in the list of exposure sites. This tells me whether the Delta is still moving ahead of historical contact tracing. #yongkevthoughts