Another War, Another Fuel Shortage

Does anyone still recall being on the cusp of the world wide pandemic in late January 2020? Was there a creeping silence as to what could possibly come ahead, as youngsters prepared for another school year across Australia, as east Asia welcomed another Lunar New Year and as supermarket shelves in Europe were loaded with taken for granted signs of plenty? Six years later, we are beginning to possibly experience a Deja Vu of a familiar unfolding scenario in our daily lives. Medicines essential on a regular basis may become scarce or increasingly unavailable due to logistical problems. Availability of supplies of diesel, refined petroleum and liquified gas are reduced and can stop indefinitely, subject to political play. Retail prices of electricity and gas spike again as their generation and flow are dependent on ships delivering petroleum along the world's critically trade strategic passageways. Increasing interest rates spiral inflation for businesses and reduce affordability at the retail level. The linkages in a globalised world continue to be saddled with issues as to how to effectively move trucks, ships and aircraft. Impact on prices charged for construction and building materials is one example of a downside that can ripple through society. Impact on viability and pricing for delivery of goods, food and parcels can slow the dynamics of online and off site purchases. At this stage, in late March 2026, do you feel a deafening or selective silence from authorities, governments and those running our society, about the current and potential risks and outcomes, should there be a continuation of shortages in supplies, increased volume of arnaments used in destruction and a significant toll of civillians injured or dying as collateral damage? The impact of much less petroleum being delivered to societies and economies around the world is still unravelling around four weeks after the firsr missiles were fired. Less developed parts of any country first take the hit when a vital resource gets progressively hard to obtain. City folks get disrupted later and when each new day offers no resolution to the cause of the problem. Australia Post has increased charges for business customers regarding delivery fees. The retail prices of petrol continue to spike all across the Asia-Pacific, with the Phillippines already declaring a national energy emergency. There is a reduction in availability of ingredients necessary to make materials for several industries. Airlines have quickly raised airfares and reduced scheduled flights. Fresh produce cannot be shipped on a timely basis to key overseas markets. Waste collection services in suburbs are affected. Fertiliser costs rise to the detriment of farmers. The much reduced inability to obtain liquified natural gas from West Asia adds a double whammy. Each week brings stuttered considerations and implementation by governments of counter measures like fuel rationing, car pooling, limited use of vehicles, release of poorer quality petrol, emergency provisioning and requests to the public to go out less. Food and grocery availability depend on mechanised vehicles being able to operate mostly utilising petrol. The visible lack of electrification across Australia for public, commercial and private transport purposes has now come home to roost. Generation of electricity in Australia however is not just reliant on solar panel generation but uses fossil fuel sources as well. More and more countries have over depended on private vehicle usage, for varying reasons like their geographical size, cities with poor public transport networks and the pyschological freedom valued when using the motor car. The Achilles heel in vehicle usage is the combination of high pricing for fuel and its reduced availability. The reactions observed of government responses seem to indicate a lack of viable and proactive business continuity planning. Governments of nations seem to operate on the optimism model and only act after significant negative events to first occur. It can be incredulous that governments have been using the just in time and minimum stock principles in inventory management of vital national supplies. A viable nation not only requires defensive abilities in war, but equally important are national resource security, key asset management and the ability to bounce back in the shortest time possible. Incredibly there have been Prime Ministers and/or Energy Ministers telling voters in the recent past, that there are no worries about having a few weeks of national fuel reserves on shore, as they can always depend on allies overseas to make up for shortages in case of shortages encountered. In a world wide emergency, it is indeed every man to himself. Energy sources are not just vital to run an economy in peace time, but become so significant in times of war. A society's vulnerability spikes when it only reacts after something has already occured. The importance of refined petroleum is a good example - a country as large as Australia has for a long time chosen to only have two refineries, even if it produces this vital resource in raw form. A small island nation like Singapore strategised to be a large fuel refiner long ago, even if it has no natural resources. How long the war crisis permeates both micro and macro layers of any economy depends on the decisions made by the human players in the outbreak of conflict. We were tied to the biological and mutatative behaviour of organisms during the Covid pandemic - and the world had witnessed the impact on finance, trade, mobility, health in all forms, governance, commercial power play and social attitudes from 2020 to at least 2023. The kick off for inflation to move at a faster rate has begun a few weeks ago. When various parts of the supply chain experience a kink or a delay, rogue players in the free markets can create artificial insuffiencies or quote actual shortages and raise prices more than necessary in the scheme of things. In economies which do not believe in price controls, the ultimate consumer has no other choice but to pay ultimate costs. The subsequent consequence of rising inflation for higher inter bank rates set by a central bank ( and thereby for mortgage and other lending costs) brings further dire pressure on loan borrowers who already do not earn enough to pay more for interest expenditure. In socialist practice, do governments offer tax credits, increased welfare payments, compensation set offs or specific subsidies to mitigate sudden rising costs of living and expenses of small business? With tighter budgets, the public can be reluctant to spend less on discretionary items and thereby contract the multiplier effect on consumption. A further strike on consumer and business confidence can drive recessionary pressures, reduced wages and GDP growth. Like an accelerating car's speed, even if the causative war were to end tonight, the linked impacts would take some time to stop. Who are nevertheless still benefitting behind the cloud of an pessimistic outlook? Does a conflict embed further the immense power already held by the few on Earth? The churning of pricing and value of investment options is utilised for quick profits with deft timing and changing allocations. The price of gold has see sawed in response to political moves, threats to escalate, promises to reverse and differing actions already witnessed in the few weeks since 28 February. Bond yields in the USA have steadily risen. Share prices have plunged collectively on red letter days and quietly recovered on days that followed. Understandably wholesale oil prices show spectacular increases on graphs, although they do drop as well. How the big players buy and sell at the right time is a useful skill of intelligent analysis and daring already seen through previous heightened episodes of stock and asset play. The media, in whatever form, needs events to arouse readership, attention and discussion. In an age of instantenous accessibility and enhanced pack mentality in expression, well funded financiers, politically charged arousers and savvy influencers can have an intense opportunity in communicating their convictions or agenda. The tragic underside of the internet is its misuse to nisinform or disinform. What has not been emphasised is the possibility of general gullibility of the target audience (including myself) - especially to new technology that can make it harder to distinguish the truth and facts from opinions, speculation and manipulated images. Wartime is the garden bed for bringing up fears, confusion and strong opinions in reaction to a deluge of varying qualities and standards of supposed information. Are certain quarters using war, and its impact, to make huge money making opportunities personally ? Buy when share or commodity prices fall drastically, sell when it spikes up again? If a political decision or action can significantly move values and prices, isn't it a better mechanism to utilise than wait for movements of so called free markets. Like during the Covid 19 pandemic, this month can be another opportunity for contemporary societies to reassess their ongoing risks, assumptions and delusions of the prosperity enjoyed so far. How likely is the strength of still possible optimism, that the problems so far experienced will fade and life will go on as before? Is your nation sleep walking and blithely awaiting a next crisis, if it survives this current one? Patchwork and stop gap measures may make our society carry on, but it does not resolve the relevant root causes. A crisis is an opportunity to resolve matters and build more resilience for the long term, and not just surface treat the symptoms. What are Earth and human beings in for this time in 2026? The Word of the Year seems likely to be "Fuel Surcharge". #yongkevthoughts 26.3 26