State of a Covid Territory

 

What are the likely near future public health scenarios across Greater Sydney in the next few weeks leading to the arrival of The Lunar New Year of the Water Tiger, on Feb 1?

Already 20 pc of PCR testing are resulting in positive infections.  The NSW capacity for PCR testing is cracking up, so lower testing numbers will give skewed and underreported figures of infection.  PCR test results are taking more than 48 hours by pathology providers to inform those tested - increasing risks of those already infected to spread an already more infectious Omicron, before the test results are communicated to them.

The push by Sco Mo and Perrotett for the public to utilise RAT testing, which can be inaccurate and incorrectly applied by untrained individuals, has already run into a wall of lack of stocks to buy, rising test kit prices and inaffordability of many to buy them.

The current focus by government here on testing, significantly misses what should be done more to reduce the spread of Omicron.  The reluctance to impose a focused and broader base of measures for the public since October 2021,  can sound the death knell for any hope of an early end to the pandemic.

The only strategy practised by governments here in Australia is to push for more and earlier booster shots of the same officially unquestioned vaccinations.  The absence of more innovative approaches underlies increasing pessimism in containing significant spikes in cases of Omicron.  The Re factor of spread is hurling more than 2 across Greater Sydney.
If around 95 percent of the NSW population has been jabbed, there is obviously less room to blame the unvaccinated to account for rising infections and hospitalisations.

When more individuals across greater Sydney get infected in five figures each new day, they increasingly cannot go to work more due to physical inability, rather than complying with government policies in isolation number of days.  So much for helping the economy at the expense of everything else.

When businesses and hospitals lack staff, there is an accumulative negative effect on the capacity of medical and economic activity and expertise to perform.

In addition to resourcing and infrastructure issues, there can be a looming supply logistics inability developing that casts a shadow on the access to many things we take for granted.

Australia is not the only nation battling the complexities of Omicron, directly or on secondary impact.  There is a real competition in securing many same things in demand across the world.

Hence there is most likely a perfect storm developing in medically treating the huge increase of infectees.

Pyschologically and collectively,  there has already been a lowering of the guard and mindfulness in simple personal responsibility measures of social distancing, face masking and avoiding crowded indoor venues with poor ventilation - the first line of defence and prevention has been whittled away.

The authorities will continue their knee jerk reactive measures, with policies that show how unprepared they are, even when they have allowed whatever new mutated strains to come in freely.

At the personal level across Greater Sydney, contact tracing, QR code scanning and exposure venue identification have all been minimised.  People are asked to maintain their confidence on the unquestioned reliance solely on vaccination protection.  Even the supplies for booster vaccination appointments are getting harder to obtain across Greater Sydney, together with the availability of test kits of whatever kind.

More and more of us this past week know of personal friends who have contracted the Coronavirus, compared to Christmas 2020 and even as recently as three months ago.

So in the next few weeks, we can expect to self manage more in our own medical treatment if we get infected - all good if we only have mild symptoms.  Treatment for other ailments will continue to be sidelined as in as much for the past two years.

For those unfortunate enough to suffer more adverse symptoms with Omicron infections, we must be prepared to lower our expectations of the private hospital and public health resources to timely support us.

So I suggest each of us have an emergency response kit and plan according to the needs of your circumstances.

Here I have taken a low risk tolerance to prepare for the worst near future scenario.    Another person may prefer a higher risk tolerance and prepare for a better scenario. The choice is ours - I pray for the best outcome and prepare for the worst.

3 January 2022, 8pm AEDT.

#yongkevthoughts