Ten Nations, Ten Economies

China, USA, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Russia, Brazil, India and Indonesia - these forecasted biggest economies by 2050, in no particular order, as predicted by PwC, seem to have the largest populations as well, apart from the UK and Germany.

Three of them - USA, Russia and China - also have sizeable warfare capability.
At the same time, the current USA administration views China as a competitive threat in various fields, whether they be high tech, trading, political systems, economic capacity and more.

The USA has a strong network of military bases around the world but domestically its people deserve renewal and expansion of public infrastructure. China has currently only one military base on foreign soil and within and without China itself, has built up impressive transport links, including High Speed Rail links, contemporary bridges and new highways.

China spends much effort and funding on improving itself, thrives on its Confucian based educational system and emphasises on social order - while the USA is a huge arms supplier, does not renew for the future by replacing its core industries and has lots of freedom of expression.

The population disparity of the USA when compared with Russia and China adds to another dimension of analysis when more people have rising incomes. This implication echoes in market purchasing power, less reliance on overseas buyers, flexibility in economic growth and cultural pride.

Leadership in these three nations is determined differently - yet this is is a critical factor as to how the USA, China and Russia bear out in navigating their future path. The USA is a relatively young nation and was built by immigrants, when compared with the richer cultural and nationalistic traditions and heritage of Russia and China.

How will each of these three nations balance the all important pattern of strength of economy and power of political systems?

Germany seems to continue to be the financial leader of Europe in the 21st century. Historically, Europe has been a dramatic stage point of fierce militaristic contention. Russian, French, German, Austro-Hungarian and British forces have helped draw out the boundaries of the sub-continent today. The Middle East has influenced Europeans not only in the Rennaisance, but exported its religious, philosophical, scientific and cultural influences in a very regular and effective way.

How Germany deals with Russia as both economies lead this region in 2050 is important. Russia currently has a higher level of natural resources, economic growth potential and population than any other European country. Germany is a powerhouse of technology, scientific advancement and political leadership.

Yet Germany also finds itself at the interface between Christian and Muslim influences as it continues to enjoy its relatively better economic prosperity.

The UK is a shade of its once glorious dominance, which commenced when the sun set over its once world wide colonial empire. Still, it has developed a London centric financial hub, perhaps neglecting the economic future of the countryside, but attracting the skilled young from so many countries. The Royal Family provides a reliable institution to mesh with the checks and balances of its Westminster parliamentary system. 

Perhaps the stongest feature of the British economy is its relative openness to foreigners and foreign influences. This trait may be reduced when and if Brexit becomes a reality. Will Britain break up as a result of the consequences of Brexit? More certain is an economic downturn for Britain on its divorce from the EU.

Immigrants from its former colonies have added to the colour and vibrancy of its economy in the cities. The Industrial Revolution and the proceeds of colonial era trade laid very strong foundations tor the British economy. The important question is what the nation is investing for its future. Is it higher education, high tech or a reliable place to park and grow money?

Brazil will continue to be subject to socio-political instability risks as its demographics enjoy better wealth. How democracy can be modified or improved is yet to be seen even with better per capita incomes. Will the indigenous people within Brazil get a better life? The various demographics who live in Brazil will experience more expectations in the quality of life, as what we saw in China in the past three decades.

If history is to be repeated, better economic growth in Brazil can see more decimation of the forests, more upsets in the ecosystem and more financial inequities. Yet this is the opportunity for Portuguese speaking Brazil to provide a positive example to Latin American nations, even if the neighbours speak Spanish.

Mexico will be the powerhouse of Latin America. The nation has always been cast as the poorer cousin in North America, but has a pool of people more passionate to improve their lives. Crime, corruption and a big income gap have colluded to economically oppress the masses, together with a volatile and varying governing leadership. 

Emigration has offered a channel of relief, especially to other territories with a richer lifestyle and where people also speak Spanish. What the USA does is critical but the Mexican population, although less than that in the USA, is growing faster than their neighbour north across the border (Also reflect on Indonesian and Australian population parameters.)

Mexico relies on industries such as peteoleum, car manufacture, tourism, food, iron and steel plus consumer durables like clothes. It relies hugely on trade with the USA, Canada, Spain and Brazil. The country has to lift itself out from this profile as its economy grows - and it can be done with good leadership.

India does speak a variety of languages, including English, but is subject to nationalism risks and socio-political vulnerabilities. The nation is said to soon exceed the population of China, but how does the government harness the promise and talent of each individual? 

There is a significant diaspora of Indians, not only in south east Asia and south Africa, but also in the Western societies of the UK, Canada, the USA, Australia and New Zealand, plus in miscellaneous territories in the Caribbean and the South Pacific. Will this other talent pool also add to India's gigantic economic growth?

India has not developed the high degree of public infrastructure that China has. Whilst contemporary China downplays the role of religion, Indians place faith and prayer as part of every day life. 

India as a nation is a federated entity created by the departing colonials, and its variety of different cultural entities can be as varied as in Europe.

Japan was the original non European Boy Wonder in the 1970s, with its disciplined society, fascination and ability to implement effective processes, its powerful links between business and Government, a focussed educational system and a collective will to recover from its failed imperial military excesses. It is now a very mature economy, only with different work habits and attitudes from the Americans, but do share some of the positive charactetistics of the Germans.

Japan remains one of the few modern societies resistent to having large numbers of immigrants, apart from China, Pacific Ocean nations and several African states. It has prospered on maintaining a homogenous and unique culture and society. An aging society is forcing a rethink on such a policy, together with high pressures on the young in education and at work.

The economic growth of Japan has occured under the defence and military umbrella provided by the USA. When and if such arrangements end, the vulnerabilities of the Japanese islands can resurface. Japan's geopolitical position between the strategic and economic interests of China and the USA can be a two edged sword.

The rise of China has had ripple effects on Japan, when both cultures and nations has had intertwining relationships historically, in trade and in competition.

The mystery question for me is Indonesia, with an outsized population compared to its neighbours and subject to social and religious risks plus a huge income divide. Indonesia spreads across an archipelago of islands with room to grow in personal wealth and quality of life.

There are huge natural resources to utilise for thee masses instead of just for the just privileged and connected families. Risks of radicalisation continue to counter weigh against the benefits of growth. The military, religious leaders and a national consciousness are critical in propelling an optimal path for a growing economy.

Brazil, Mexico and India do not face the issues of declining populations in the next 30 years. The population size is only but one of the several factors promoting economic growth. Technology, governance stability, having strategic advantages, avoiding the damage from warfare, having insightful and progressive leadership, possessing unique natural and man made resources plus a political system that encourages innovation do help.

European Impact

Euopean states have often been ravaged by war, with national boundaries changing, religious allegiances enforced, new generations adapting to learn different languages and political systems transforming in constant flux. Although most of these states can be small in size, there are a few large players - Germany, France and Russia - that have exerted their cultural, economic and political clout on the landscape of Europe in different centuries.

The stress and dislocation caused to civil populations in the last century had made many Europeans emigrate to new opportunities in the USA, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the United Kingdom. The constant scenarios of instability, military conquest and economic uncertainty had encouraged the several cantons of the Swiss Federation to declare a strong political neutrality.

The Roman Empire set the tone early more then 2000 years ago in its drive for territory expansion, control of trade routes and increasing its brand of Greek based civilisation and so called Western values. And then this Empire was overwhelmed by the Ottomans, especially in the Eastern Roman Empire and in the Iberian region.

Waking up from the Dark Ages, Europe went through its Renaissance and Age of Enlightenment. With a technologically superior array of skills, tools and military equipment, the more advanced Euro states began to look outward. 

Adventurers under the sponsorship of Spain reached the Americas by crossing the Atlantic, initially hoping to reach India. not realising they had headed in the wrong direction.

The Arabs and the Ming Dynasty Chinese had already effectively harnessed the power of monsoonal winds to come to India, Africa and South-east Asia. Once Bartolomeu Diaz successfully sailed around the Cape of Good Hope, the limitations and shackles of the land route from Europe to China, the Silk Road, were removed.

The interim drive to discover new lands in the European mind was embedded by the delights and benefits of the spice trade. Think of spices as powerful as petroleum, clean water, sustainable energy, data and internet connections today.

Thus began the age of colonialism, economic utilisation and occupation of other civilisations by the European powers - Portugal, Spain, Holland, Belgium, France, Germany, Britain and to a minor extent, Italy. Almost every corner of the non European world was taken over for control in Africa, Asia, the Middle East, Oceania and the Americas, except for Thailand, Siberia and inland regions of China.

The British had already colonised Ireland, while losing the USA earlier in 1776. The British East India Company established its first outpost in South East Asia in Penang in 1786.

The European powers in this manner disseminated the use of their own languages, cultural habits, administrative structures, political thoughts, technology like railways and sharing of their DNA. The globalisation effect strengthened, with an exchange of ideas, culinary influences and socio-cultural practices. Fusion in society was reinforced, like what happened to the Anglos, Gauls, Germania and Eastern Europe at the height of the Roman Empire.

Some European colonists tended to ignore the existence of prior societies before they "discovered" them. Indigenous populations were especially vulnerable to the arrival of the European colonists. Foreign diseases, religions and trade arrived with various implications. Some powers were more violent in their treatment of their new subjects, others more benign. Various ethnic groups who prior had no relationships with each other found themselves saddled in the same country newly formed by the colonists.

Then came the two World Wars of the 20th century, with their breakouts initially happening in Europe. The Imperial Japanese military occupation of east and south east Asia had Japan urging these other Asians to throw off the yoke of European rule. A series of national independence declarations occurred especially in the decade after the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs were dropped by the USA. Returning colonials in 1945 found a new political attitude in their subjects around the world. 

The last significant colony given up by an European power was Hong Kong in 1997. 

Previous subjects of colonised countries have come to settle in the land of their previous political masters. This is especially evident in the UK, France, Italy, Holland and Spain. Being legally settled in one EU nation means a liberating ability to be mobile throughout in seeking jobs, enjoying holidays, forming relationships and setting up businesses in fellow EU states.

A recent trend of heightened political correctness has had some European countries accepting large numbers of refugees and other categories of migrants from the Middle East and Africa, where war, economic decline and social disorder has been the norm on ours news media.

Germany and France continue to dominate the economic and other key affairs of contemporary Europe, while a revived Russia post the Communist era, now looks set to be a significant player on the world stage, together with China and the USA, in the 21st century.

The story of Europe continues, with a troubled record of union and now with the attempt of the United Kingdom to leave the EU. The borderless arrangements for travel, trade and financial integration within the EU can prove to be a two edged sword, particularly in a world facing the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Walls

Walls are not just physical structures, but also represent mindsets, preservations of what seems to have worked in the past and a telling inability to effectively embrace and utilise the best of changes.

Walls made of stone, metal or earth can only last as long as the materials offered by Nature and human handiwork. Nature is forever transforming. Humankind has progressed because of the evolving brain of Homo Sapiens to make the most of volatility, observe what is more stable and reliable and adapt better than others. Other related species have found limitations without embracing this significant ability, despite having larger sizes, apparently better physical prowesss and a longer track record of survival.

So when particular human tribes or cultures revert strongly to the circle of bandwagons mentality, it can be a decidedly portent sign of negativity and decline. The actual act of erecting walls, in the broadest sense of the word, has historically been more of a disadvantage than a benefit. The society that builds walls perpetuates in its own limbo - it can be compared to someone who needs positive change but is encouraged and emboldened to be trapped in his own debilitating comfort zone of bad habits and incriminating behaviour.

Hadrian's Wall, the Great Wall of China, the Wall of Ston in Croatia, the Berlin Wall, the Great Wall of Babylon and fortifications serving as outposts in dangerous territory of deserts and plains jump out of our school textbooks. The primary justification of strategic defence provides a psychological rationale for the construction of walls and accompanying moats. Often such physical manifestations just delay the arrival of the inevitable.

Is the real and effective enemy the barbarian waiting at the gate? Maybe the actual enemy is an inability to consider the new and seemingly unacceptable, to make use of the best offered by a seeming threat and to resolve internal dismay by seizing on an opportunity to learn?

We know that walls can be breached anyway in unexpected places. The Achilles heel of using a wall as a socio-political tool has been demonstrated by a top military commander willingly opening the gates to invaders in dynastic China. 

The man made wall is best seen as a temporary and interim measure to use when the builder is disorganised and refuses to adopt other more reliable methods. Walls of a cultural nature are echoed by strict interpretations of often a religious nature, the deeming of uniqueness behind the walls and strong restrictions in allowing foreigners coming in. 

The human penchant for building walls can also be seen in cyberspace, exercising extreme conservatism and building defences against inter continental missiles. Military strategy in the future must encompass a variety of holistic fronts and not just rely on a physical structure.

The greater ease of mobility, in travel, exchange of goods, virtual transactions and social engagement, implies that any one still believing in the usefulness of erecting walls, has a complex job ahead.

Not Too Long Ago

As the year 2018 came to a close, there were many reflections by the media.

I absolutely love history and how it has shaped our present and future. 

In 1978, the Lunar Year of the Fire Snake, Deng Xiao Ping commenced the liberalisation of the economy for the common man and woman in China. Forty years on, the transformation of the world's most populous country in many aspects of life, business, infrastructure, trade, technology and nation building, has astounded Western societies.

In February that year, the Sydney Hilton was bombed involving violent terrorism, a rather rare event for an Australian city, when compared with our current decade.   The iconic Mardi Gras began as a protest march on the streets of Sydney.

Grease, the dance movie starring Olivia Newton-John and John Travolta, was released in June to a raptious audience.

Robert Menzies passed on, marking an end to a significant political era.

Refugee boats from Vietnam floundered off the eastern coast of Peninsular Malaysia, which had a government towing them back to the sea. Many were put in camps in Thailand and on Pulau Bidong off the Trengganu coast. Under the auspices of the UNHCR, those who survived their ordeal migrated to Western countries, when it was obvious the neighbouring ASEAN nations did not want to accept them.

Ten years ago, Beijing hosted its first Olympics, marking a significant rite of passage. The Prime Ministers of Canada and Australia made formal apologies in their respective Parliaments to their indigenous peoples. 

Stirrings of the internet only began 30 years ago. 1988 also witnessed the opening of an impressive long tunnel between the Japanese islands of Hokkaido and Honshu. The Phantom of the Opera debuted on stage, Home & Away began on Aussie TV. The Estonians began their unique Singing Revolution, which eventually culminated in the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Twenty years ago, anti-Chinese riots broke out in Jakarta, with reportedly a thousand people killed. The first Euro coins were minted in France. Titanic became the first movie to gross over a billion US dollars. The Good Friday Agreement was signed between the Irish and British Governments in Belfast.

In 1998, both Hong Kong and Kuala Lumpur opened their then spanking new airports. Dictator General Augusto Pinochet was arrested and indicted of crimes in Chile.

Fifty years ago, the Battle of Khe Sanh raged on in what is called the American War in Vietnam. The Tet Offensive witnessed the Vietcong roaming downtown on the streets of Saigon, a forerunner of the eventual collapse in 1975. Extensive anti-Vietnam War protests break out in Western cities and the My Lai village massacre occurred in April of 1968.

1968 also witnessed the creation of the United Methodist Church, the assassinations of Martin Luther King and Robert F. Kennedy, the appointment of Pierre Elliot Tredeau ( father to Justin) as Canadian Prime Minister and the opening of the hit musical Hair!, the TV classic Hawaii Five-O, the CBS news program of 60 Minutes and the cult cinema series, The Planet of the Apes.

Czechoslovakia was invaded by the Warsaw Pact countries. Yale University announced the admission of female students. Mexico City hosted the Summer Olympics. The Malayan Communist Party launched a second insurgency emergency. Thames TV began transmission in London.

Where Christmas Can Be Not A Holiday

The other day I wanted to Facetime with a nephew in Bangkok, but I did not realise that Christmas is not a public holiday in Thailand, the only Asian nation not occupied by foreign powers in the 19th and 20th centuries.

I then checked that Christmas is a public holiday, still, in all the Asian nations which were colonised by the British a century or more ago, apart from Brunei, which has recently banned any celebrations of Christmas, and Pakistan, which was a nation created for Indian Muslims in 1947 when the British colonials left. 

China, Vietnam, Laos, Kampuchea and Burma had varying degrees of Western colonial rule, either in parts of or the whole of their country, but do not recognise Christmas as a official holiday, except in the SARs of Macau and Hong Kong.

You may have noticed the much more impressive commercially sponsored lights for Christmas in places such as Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, Bangkok, Saigon, Seoul, Taipei, Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur when compared with Australian cities.

Most Asian nations also do not have a significant Christian majority like the Phillippines and Papua New Guinea.

Indonesia, a Muslim majority country, however offers two public holidays for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

North Korea does not recognise a holiday for Christmas whilst South Korea does.

Christmas in Australia is marked by hot temperatures and excesses of a relatively rich society. 

There are public messages by the reps of the Catholic and Anglican Churches, by the Queen of the United Kingdom and Head of State of 15 Commonwealth nations - and through overwhelming advertisements on screen media. 

There is over eating, intense shopping, over consumption of sea food, increased demerit points for traffic offences, superb alcohol sales, airport over crowding, electronic system failure of one kind or another and over exposure to the strong sun. Someone said to me do not blame the festive season, it does happen on other days as well.

Restaurants and cafes tend to close from Christmas Day. Fruits are a plenty Down Under unlike in the northern climes. Tradies go on long holidays. Neighbours disappear for their annual trips, or get more than their usual share of visitors. The beaches, cricket grounds and parks are inundated with people. Incidents of accidental drownings, bush fires, vehicle crashes and domestic violence are highlighted by the media more during this holiday season, when more people, especially families, gather and travel than at any other time of the Australian year, except perhaps for Easter.

The Australian government maintains a military presence in several areas overseas - and no matter what our political leanings are, our thoughts and prayers especially go to the individuals who cannot be with family during Christmas.